August 1
S&P 10Y USU5 WSJ$ FX Gold Oil
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 growth estimate falls to 2.1% from 2.3%
UMich Sentiment Hits 5-Month High As Inflation Expectations Plunge | Zero
Rate cut expectations are now back above 50bp for 2025. Time for an emergency cut? | Zero
Gold up $59 or 1.81% to $3,347 on expections of Fed ease | 1:14
Dollar index down 0.84%% to 99.13 vs two-month high of 100 earlier
S&P is down 1.72%
10Y yield is lower by 14.1bp to 4.231%
USU5 is up 1.13
Next week, investor attention will remain focused on Trump’s trade war after sweeping tariffs on August 1st
Economic data releases include ISM Services PMI, trade balance, factory orders.
Trading Economics News
The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in June.
The previous two months were revised lower by 238,000 to erase the previous view that the US labor market was resilient to tariff threats and restrictive rates. In response, markets are now pricing in a 75% probability of a September rate cut—up sharply from 45% prior to the report.
Fed's Waller and Bowman comment on their dissent to this week's policy decision | Forex
Trump’s Craziness on the Fed | Dean Baker
Averaged with the 0.5 percent decline from the first quarter, GDP grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the first half of the year. Consumption in the first half grew at a 0.9 percent rate compared to the 3.4 percent increase in 2024. The annual rate of inflation in the core personal consumption expenditure deflator, the Fed’s preferred gage, was 3.0 percent in the first half of the year. The higher inflation coupled with weak growth could make interest rate policy a tough call for the Fed.
The correction is finally here.
Historically, August has been a poor month for stocks during a President’s 2nd term. As Ryan Detrick notes, the average August performance under these conditions is DOWN 3.4%.
Nice work, Democratic Party! | Kunstler
By now, it must be kind of obvious that Mr. Putin of Russia was staged-up into a demon for the convenience of Hillary Clinton — resulting in a decade of deformed US foreign relations that has dragged us to the edge of a third world war.
Maybe nothing can be done about the perfidious New York Times or Washington Post because the First Amendment allows lies to be printed within the limits of the libel laws. But the TV networks have additional obligations to the public interest under the broadcast regulations and they can lose their licenses. Perhaps they should and will.
Even If Obama Has Immunity, He Could Face Prosecution | Debt
Because of that immunity, he loses the ability to invoke the Fifth Amendment if he’s called before a grand jury to testify about what actually transpired in his White House during those fraught days—especially regarding the plotting against General Flynn. He’ll be compelled to answer directly, under oath. And if he lies, he is in legal jeopardy—the exact “trap” his own administration foisted on Flynn. I still think Obama isn’t protected because the Supreme Court indicated that not all acts by the president are official.
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Trump has grown “tired” not only of waiting for Russia to settle the conflict. | Simpl
He’s now fast-forwarded his ‘tariffs’ deadline to what is now less than ten days, which Russia is even mocking by running tariff count-down tickers on their news feeds. But even Trump admitted the tariffs “may not work” and seemed generally half-hearted and lackadaisical about the whole thing—or perhaps, more aptly, defeated:
Museum or Crime Scene? Britain Illegally Holds Egypt’s Cultural Heritage
How Realistic Are Goldman & JPMorgan’s $4,000 Gold Targets?
Gold closed at 3,292. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed forecast for gold to reach $3,700 by end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026.
The Ukrainian army, like the Ukrainian state, is in the process of falling apart. | Moon
The Ukrainian forces lack infantry. Some Ukrainian brigades have less than 100 people to man several miles long defense lines. There is a severe lack of mortar and artillery ammunition. The Russian side has more and better drones available in higher numbers. The recent re-organization of the Ukrainian army into corps sized structures has only increase the organizational chaos.
India Officially Rejects the F-35 | Militar
Indian government appears unlikely to proceed with any major new defence procurements from US
Short video of a crazed fucker
"For every disease that we don't have vaccines, we will try mRNA. "
"We just need to mess around. There's a lot of lipid nanoparticles, and some are very self assembling."
KR: Bill Gates knows about bugs....
We are now in the 17th year of this Fourth Turning, with a likely climax before 2032. | Burn
Based on a very limited sample of three previous Crisis periods in American history, we would expect a major war or wars, with unthinkable destruction and death.
Doug Casey on How Artificial Intelligence Will Radically Transform the World
We’re really on the cusp of the biggest revolution in world history. I look forward to it. It will cure disease and old age. The avalanche of new wealth that will be created will effectively eliminate poverty. Mankind’s wildest dreams and ambitions can be realized.
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