April 8
S&P is up 2.23% | 12:09
10Y is higher in yield by 4.9bp to 4.206%
Gold is up $17 to $2,997
Dollar index is up 0.05%
Russia's Central Bank warns that falling oil prices and tariff wars threaten the Russian economy. | OilPx
Goldman's new base case sees sustained USD weakness | Forex
Goldman Sachs is now firmly in the Dollar bearish camp, betting that weakening US fundamentals and fading exceptionalism will continue to drive structural dollar depreciation. The EUR stands out as a key beneficiary, with EUR/USD now expected to rally towards 1.20 by year-end.
Trump demands the EU buy $350 billion in U.S. energy to remove tariffs.
Bessent Comments: "President Has Maximum Negotiating Leverage"
China’s offshore yuan to a new record low against the dollar | Zero
The yuan devaluation is now a big risk for markets | Forex
Trading Economics
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.3 points to 97.4, its lowest level since October 2024
Morgan Stanley cuts GDP forecast to 0.8%, but does not anticipate a recession | Forex
As markets stabilise, so do the rate cut expectation: Fed by year-end: 96 bps | Forex
Thursday: March CPI could dish up another surprise that might give the bond market the willies. | Wolf
CPI consensus is for 0.1% increase (up 2.6% YoY) and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.0% YoY) | Calc
Cleveland Fed sees CPI for March at only 0.03 m/m, but sees April rebounding to 0.33
Gasoline prices reverve, down 1.3ct to $3.246 | AAA
Bordertowns With Mexico and Canada
To understand how labor arbitrage is shafting the US, watch this amusing video.
Here's Schumer In 2005 Saying Big Tariffs On China Needed
Tesla Austin Cars Driving Without Humans from Factory
New Tesla Model Ys and Cybertrucks are now autonomously driving themselves about 2 miles from the end of the production line at Giga Texas to their designated lanes near the outbound lot with no humans in the cars.
Why America Don’t Need No Stinkin’ ‘Allies’ | David Stockman
Allies in today’s world are mostly an albatross, completely irrelevant to the military security of the American homeland and a major source of unnecessary friction and even outright conflict among the nations.
Trump, Netanyahu Reaffirm Ethnic Cleansing Plan | Anti-War
Trump also said it would be a “good thing” for the US to take over and control Gaza. “Well, you know how I feel about the Gaza Strip. I think it’s an incredible piece of important real estate.”
Chinese industry without American consumers is not a pretty picture. | Debt
The “tariffs are instituted, they are not going away,” Trump said. When questioned about having a “threshold” of “pain he is willing to tolerate,” President Trump notes the “question is stupid.” We are responding to opposition who are playing a zero-sum game, there is no level of pain too intolerable when ultimately your survival as a nation is at stake. Either we do, and win – or, we do not and die, that is our current status.
Trump says he is not interested in negotiating with Europe over the tariffs |
He will not be lifting them “unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis, number one for present but also for past.” The EU will see this as extortion. Europe and the US are no longer partners or allies. It’s only a matter of time before the European markets collapse. NATO is probably next. \\ Debt: Will Trump split up Europe? Separate deal for Italy first?
Supreme Court Slapdown of Judge Boasberg Sends Message To Federal Judges | JTN
The Supreme Court decision reversing U.S. District Judge James Boasberg’s block on President Donald Trump’s deportation of gang members under the Alien Enemies Act sent a stern message to federal judges nationwide that overreach and venue shopping won’t be tolerated. \\ The need for due process, however, will slow the deportation process to a degree.
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