April 4
The Reckoning Begins: Trump’s Tariffs and the Return of Power | Sara
Here’s the truth no one at the cocktail parties wants to say out loud: tariffs are not taxes on Americans. That’s a lie told by people who either don’t understand economics—or don’t care who’s getting steamrolled, as long as their stock portfolio stays padded. A tariff is a penalty. It’s a strategic toll on products that come into this country under unfair terms. It’s how we say, “You want access to our markets? Then play fair. Otherwise, pay up.”
Warren Buffett suggests reading a 19th century poem when stocks fall
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” - from Rudyard Kipling’s classic poem “If”
How Lies from the Biden Administration Expanded the Ukraine War | Bell
Most of our readers are too young to remember the Vietnam War of a half-century ago, but those of us alive who held draft cards classifying us as 1A have a more personal perspective.
Tariffs Are the Weapon. China is the target. It always has been.
Once you view it through that prism, everything starts to make a lot more sense. For decades, the global trade system has been gamed by Beijing. What was originally designed as a framework for reciprocal, rules-based trade among free-market economies was twisted beyond recognition when Bill Clinton ushered China into the World Trade Organization in 2001. That decision, sold to the public as a step toward liberalizing China, now ranks among the greatest strategic blunders in U.S. history. China never intended to play by the rules—and it never did.
Trading Economics
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Goldman: "today is currently tracking as the highest volume session in the history of the US stock market as measured by total shares traded across all exchanges" | Zero
S&P is down 5.22% | 15:26
10Y is lower by 5.7bp to 3.998%. A week ago it was 4.40%
Dollar index is up 0.94%
Gold is down $80 to $3,031
WTI crude oil is settling at $61.99 down $4.96 or 7.40%.
Copper Posts Biggest Weekly Drop Since Covid Crash As Tariff War Hammers Commodities | Zero
Q1 GDP Tracking: Near Zero Growth | Calc
The stock selloff intensified in the afternoon trading after Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the economic fallout from the escalating trade war could be worse than expected. Ignoring the 10Y yield now below 4%, Powell cited rising risks of inflation and slower growth, while reaffirming a cautious, wait-and-see stance on rate cuts.
Next week, CPI and PPI data will offer insights into how tariffs are affecting inflation.
Cleveland Fed sees CPI for March at only 0.03 m/m, but April boncing up to 0.33
The NFP is old news | Forex
The NFP data doesn't reflect the worse than expected tariffs announcement, therefore it's old news now. The focus should be on Powell as he has the power to turn the sentiment around
March non-farm payrolls +228K vs +135K expected and the strongest in three months
Net 2-month revisions: -48K lower
Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.1% expected
Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.3%
Do you see the pattern? | Kunst
Populist party leaders all over Western Civ getting undone by the law courts. International lawfare is about the last remaining tool in the “Globalist” kit-bag for “color revolution,” which means regime change by underhanded means, election interference being the favorite device.
United States and New Zealand are the only countries where prescription drug ads are legal on television | Insta
Trump’s game plan may have been taken from Stephen Miran’s playbook. | Simpl
Stephen Ira Miran is the current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
In November, Miran wrote A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, which according to experts precisely parallels what Trump is now attempting to carry out. One of the core tenets of the document is the deliberate devaluation of the US dollar in order to make US exports favorable again to reignite American manufacturing. The entire issue revolves around the famous Triffin’s dilemma.
Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) | YouTube (24-minutes, but useful)
Here’s Why Trump Will Win the Tariff Standoff
Bessent confidently explained the administration’s position on tariffs and trade policy, signaling that Trump’s economic strategy is deliberate and well thought out.
The endgame for Bessent: Lower 10Y rates grease the wheels for the real economy
Bessent wants to lower yields without relying on Fed cuts, which would stoke inflation. By focusing on the 10-year yield, he will directly control long-term rates, offering a more precise tool than broad monetary policy shifts that might juice the stock market and increase consumer prices.
China had it good for a few decades. So of course they’re not rejoicing today. | Debt
“The era of Asia’s export manufacturing-led development has come to an end, and the region will need to develop markets closer to home.” \\ In financial markets, the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 7.1889 per dollar, weakening the currency. This allows the yuan to depreciate and support export competitiveness. A move like this will only draw accusations of currency manipulation from Trump.
Market Understood What Tariffs Are: A Tax on Corporate Profit Margins | Wolf
A tax on corporate profit margins that companies will have a very hard time passing on, which is why companies hate tariffs so much. If they could pass them on easily, they wouldn’t care about tariffs; their revenues would go up by the amount of the tariffs, and their profit margins in percentage terms could be maintained, and their stocks would keep rising. But that’s not the case.
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