April 5
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The Week in Pictures
Trading Economics
The Week Ahead: Trade War and Price Action are More Important than US and China's CPI | Marc
CPI consensus is for 0.1% increase (up 2.6% YoY) and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.0% YoY) | Calc
Cleveland Fed sees CPI for March at only 0.03 m/m, but sees April rebounding to 0.33
A Must Read | WashPost
“He’s at the peak of just not giving a f--- anymore,” said a White House official with knowledge of Trump’s thinking. “Bad news stories? Doesn’t give a f---. He’s going to do what he’s going to do. He’s going to do what he promised to do on the campaign trail.”
Amid the confusion, foreign capitals around the world have been consulting with each other to try to understand the U.S. strategy and themes. “It’s not clear what they want to achieve,” the diplomat said, adding that foreign trade partners felt they had little ability to sway the conversation. “I don’t think that they listen to foreigners. I think they listen to their own businesses.”
Statement from Bill Ackman.
So why did Trump take this approach? The answer goes back to ‘The Art of the Deal.’ Trump’s negotiating style is to ask for the moon and then settle somewhere in between. It has worked well for him in the past so he is using the same approach here.
Trump’s tariffs will turn EU economy into ‘decaying corpse’ – Medvedev, former Russian president
“No need for knee-jerk reactions,” he posted on social media. “We should take a seat on the shore and wait for the enemy’s corpse to float by. In this case, the decaying corpse of the EU economy.”
CBB Weekly Commentary: Worse than the Worst-Case
The historic, multi-decade, global Bubble was always going to end badly. The circumstances I see today are worse than what I had previously contemplated as the worst case. It’s difficult to envisage the U.S. more unprepared for what will now unfold - an atrocious backdrop for heading into crisis. Society is angry and so deeply divided – with stocks only somewhat off record highs and unemployment at 4.2%. Washington is at the brink of complete dysfunction.
Powell made clear the US central bank won’t rush to react. But Trump disagrees:
“This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly.
Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!”
If Trump must fight Roberts, he will.
See several articles about the bad aroma around Roberts. Also, the Supreme Court on Friday overruled an activist judge in Boston, allowing the Trump administration to slash $250 million for more than 100 teacher training grants for DEI and other woke programs. In a 5-4 decision nine days after the request, the Supremes sided with the Trump administration’s emergency request to stay the court order.
The perfect gift for your deaf friend. | Surber
NYT tweeted, “Breaking News: Bruce Springsteen announced Tracks II: The Lost Albums, a boxed set featuring 74 songs that have never been officially released in any form. It is set to come out on June 27.”
“Participation trophies” were a cultural phenomenon
This phenomenon wasn’t foisted on our culture by accident. It began in the bowels of California academia, championed by a childless progressive politician with grandiose ideas about human nature, the role of government, child psychology, and the “proper” way to raise the nation’s children.
The computer projected this crash. | Arm
Many who hate my guts still subscribe to Socrates to hate the next forecast. I subscribe to the NYT and the Washington Post, NOT because I believe them, but because I want to know the next fake news they are reporting.
Wondering why Putin picked Kirill Dmitriev—not a general or diplomat—to lead talks with Trump’s team?
Short Video
Arthur C. Clarke in 1964 giving some astonishing predictions about the future.
The Reckoning Begins: Trump’s Tariffs and the Return of Power | Sara
Here’s the truth no one at the cocktail parties wants to say out loud: tariffs are not taxes on Americans. That’s a lie told by people who either don’t understand economics—or don’t care who’s getting steamrolled, as long as their stock portfolio stays padded. A tariff is a penalty. It’s a strategic toll on products that come into this country under unfair terms. It’s how we say, “You want access to our markets? Then play fair. Otherwise, pay up.”
Warren Buffett suggests reading a 19th century poem when stocks fall
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.” - from Rudyard Kipling’s classic poem “If”
How Lies from the Biden Administration Expanded the Ukraine War | Bell
Most of our readers are too young to remember the Vietnam War of a half-century ago, but those of us alive who held draft cards classifying us as 1A have a more personal perspective.
Tariffs Are the Weapon. China is the target. It always has been.
Once you view it through that prism, everything starts to make a lot more sense. For decades, the global trade system has been gamed by Beijing. What was originally designed as a framework for reciprocal, rules-based trade among free-market economies was twisted beyond recognition when Bill Clinton ushered China into the World Trade Organization in 2001. That decision, sold to the public as a step toward liberalizing China, now ranks among the greatest strategic blunders in U.S. history. China never intended to play by the rules—and it never did.
Trump’s game plan may have been taken from Stephen Miran’s playbook. | Simpl
Stephen Ira Miran is the current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
In November, Miran wrote A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, which according to experts precisely parallels what Trump is now attempting to carry out. One of the core tenets of the document is the deliberate devaluation of the US dollar in order to make US exports favorable again to reignite American manufacturing. The entire issue revolves around the famous Triffin’s dilemma.
Why Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) | YouTube (24-minutes, but useful)
Here’s Why Trump Will Win the Tariff Standoff
Bessent confidently explained the administration’s position on tariffs and trade policy, signaling that Trump’s economic strategy is deliberate and well thought out.
"Success is when you look back at your life and the memories make you smile."
The Male Cycle
1) When I was 13, I hoped that one day I would have a girlfriend with big tits.
(2) When I was 16, I got a girlfriend with big tits, but there was no passion, so I decided I needed a passionate girl with zest for life.
(3) In college I dated a passionate girl, but she was too emotional. Everything was an emergency; she was a drama queen, cried all the time and threatened suicide. So I decided I needed a girl with stability.
(4) When I was 25, I found a very stable girl but she was boring. She was totally predictable and never got excited about anything. Life became so dull that I decided I needed a girl with some excitement.
(5) When I was 28, I found an exciting girl, but I couldn't keep up with her. She rushed from one thing to another, never settling on anything. She did mad impetuous things and made me miserable as often as happy. She was great fun initially and very energetic, but directionless. So I decided to find a girl with some real ambition.
6) When I turned 30, I found a smart ambitious girl with her feet planted firmly on the ground, so I married her. She was so ambitious that she divorced me and took everything I owned.
7) I am older and wiser now, and I am looking for a girl with big tits.
at 12:00 AM