August 31
News
Bessent: Oil price are going to come down. US 10 year yield is where it was when Pres. Trump took office | Forex
Dallas Fed Factory Activity Jumps to Highest Since 2025
Economic data: Employment Situation report and ISM PMIs
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
S&P is down 0.49% | 11:08
Oil is up 2.30% to $85.32
Gold is down $20
10Y yield is 4.76%, Highest Since January 2025
Renewed fighting in the Strait of Hormuz sends Brent crude futures backk above $90
The Dollar Consolidates Warsh-Inspired Gains
A FOMC hike at the next meeting on September 16 is not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination.
Will the price at the pump fall in time to help Trump?
AAA gasoline is $4.080 vs $4.099 a week ago
Diesel is $5.600 vs $5.613 a week ago
Doug Noland Weekly
The Fed Chair delivered an impressive presentation at Jackson Hole. Consistent with hawkish messaging, two-year yields popped a quick eight bps to 4.31%. The yield curve flattened notably, with 30-year yields declining four bps to 5.15% (10-yr yield down 2bps).
The rates market went from pricing 35% probability of a rate increase at the September 16th meeting to 60%, with odds for a hike by October 28th jumping to 92% (from 62%). The market is now pricing two 25 bps increases by next March – with short rates forecast back above 4%.
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