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May 15

S&P   Oil   FX   Gold  10Y
S&P is down 0.89% | 12:48
Dollar index is up 0.40% to 99.21
WTI crude is $105.09, up $3.92
Brent is over $109

30Y is 5.121%, higher by 8.9bp
Bond Market on Verge of Crash, Long Bond Yield Near 19-Year High | Mish
Bonds Are Screaming "Something's Wrong" | QTR

For China the Strait is open. | Moon
Iran Says It Has "No Trust" In US, Insists There Is "No Military Solution" | Zero

Wages are now rising aggressively across the skilled trades | Arm
This is where the mainstream economic narrative completely failed. Governments assumed everything would become a digital service economy where everyone sat behind screens while production moved overseas.

Debt Rattle
* President Xi stuns the room saying to Trump: “We should be partners, not rivals"

Industrial production for April 0.7% versus 0.3% estimate
Capacity utilization at 76.1%

The situation in the Middle East remains fragile and far from resolved, with Trump describing the first sentence of Iran’s latest proposal as “unacceptable”. As a result, oil prices continued to climb, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. Meanwhile, a summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi ended without any major agreements, including any indication that Beijing would help resolve the conflict.

Both the CPI and PPI reports released this week suggested that the energy shock is pushing US inflation higher. Traders are now fully pricing in one rate hike by the Fed in March next year, with more than a 50% chance that interest rates will rise before the end of 2026.

Journalist Alex Berenson reached a settlement with the federal government that includes a written statement that officials violated the First Amendment by pressuring Twitter to suppress his reporting on COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and safety. The agreement provides monetary compensation and leaves separate claims against former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb and Pfizer intact. | Peak


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