July 19
BTC price up about $616 from $63,789 late Friday | 3:37pm Sunday
Crude closed Friday at $82.49. If oil opens close to $85, shorts will start feeling the squeeze.
Dec CLZ6 closed Friday at $77.65, up from $67.30, the war's low. War's high is $85.63.
Before oil futures trading resumes | Wauck
I won’t be surprised if, before oil futures trading resumes at 5:59 pm EST, either President Trump—or Axios on his behalf—is going to claim that the US and Iran initiated discussions to agree on a new ceasefire.
Wauck: My theory is that US bases are getting wiped out, US is pulling assets to safer distant places (Israel) & things are drained to a level that they could not even organize a serious attack yesterday night. This is what happens if you try to attack Iran with a meager military organization & keep interrupting the war to rig the financial markets.
John: Despite Trump’s vow to “unleash the gates of Hell” on Iran, the US strikes on Iran were limited in scope and scale. Most interesting is that Iran has not responded in any meaningful fashion. Pepe Escobar and I have learned that there are some serious diplomatic initiatives taking place behind the scenes with China playing a major role. | John
Kuwait desalination plant on fire after attack \ AlJz
Peak: Kuwait hosts roughly 13,000 U.S. troops — more than any other GCC country — and has been the most relaxed about allowing American operations from its soil, placing it fully in the U.S. and Israeli camp alongside Bahrain. With essentially zero natural fresh water and around 90% of its drinking supply from desalination plants tied to power stations, Kuwait faces a uniquely rapid humanitarian collapse if those facilities are hit.
In Kakistocracy, Hanania defines populism as a fundamentally anti-elite form of politics.
Hanania defines elites not as the wealthy or powerful, but as people who derive status through their connections to “established, usually long-standing” institutions. These gatekeeper institutions include universities, legacy-media publications, professional organizations, and nonprofits. Elites move up in the world by impressing other members of the elite rather than a mass audience.
What happens when otherwise smart people adopt an anti-elite political identity.
A movement that rejects both elites and their norms, by contrast, will naturally succumb more easily to conspiracy theories about vaccines and stolen elections. When people renounce the mainstream media, Hanania writes, they end up listening to populist sources who don’t even try to uphold standards of accuracy and objectivity.
Kakistocracy
Government by the least qualified or most unprincipled citizens.
Government by the worst men.
Government under the control of a nation's worst or least-qualified citizens.
Russia Continues to Pound Ukraine | John
Putin’s press spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, announced two weeks ago that Russia was at war with Ukraine and its NATO allies. This was a clear shift from describing the fight with Ukraine as a Special Military Operation. The intense and varied attacks by Russia since July 6 on Kyiv and other key cities still held by Ukraine, marks a decisive shift by Russia in how it will manage the war with Ukraine in the coming weeks and months.
Today’s Peak Digest
A Midwestern Doctor examined health issues among U.S. Senators following the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, highlighting multiple cases of strokes, shingles complications, cognitive decline, and sudden deaths in prominent politicians who had strongly promoted the vaccines.
SpaceX Is Secretly Winning the AI War on Earth — $82 Billion Run Rate Incoming
Rapid power deployment solving the #1 bottleneck (energy) that is holding back hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google. 1–2 additional major leasing deals will be announced before the end of the year (2026). This could push SpaceX toward an $82 billion annual run rate (roughly $7 billion per month).
The DSA and the Myth of Scandinavian Socialism | Turley
Indeed, the Scandinavian socialism myth is so enticing that I expect Scandinavians must wonder where they can also find it.
The Supreme Court's AI Collision Course | Zero
The constitutional doctrine that currently protects the right of these companies to spend millions in our elections is the same doctrine that will be asked to protect something even stranger: The “speech” of artificial intelligence itself. If “speaker identity” does not matter for corporations and unions and super PACs, why should it matter when it comes to AI platforms?
Debt Rattle
“Nearly every voter in California casts a ballot by mail ..”
Week Ahead: Leading indicators and regional Fed surveys
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a September rate increase
AAA gasoline is above its month ago level: $3.998 vs $3.973 a month ago
Across the board, all 5 fuel price averages are now higher than a month ago. | Mish
The CPI dip in June was a one-time (possibly two-time depending of data collection dates) affair.
Traders Stunned By Momentum Meltdown | Zero
Every so often, the market hands you a week where the index and the internals tell opposite stories. This was one of them. The S&P 500 fell about 1.5%, a garden-variety pullback, while the momentum factor suffered its worst drawdown since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis. That gap is the entire story, and understanding it is the difference between panic-selling the wrong thing and using the rotation to your advantage.
FIFA’s $11 Billion Heist
The whole tenor of FIFA’s perfidy has changed. Cash stuffed envelopes are out, outrageously exploitative contracts are in. Best known in America for his genius flourish in inventing a “FIFA Peace Prize” only to award it to Donald Trump a month later, Infantino has professionalized FIFA’s empire of extraction.
The US unwittingly provided the spark that ignited China’s quest for the Beidou. | Zero
The BeiDou Navigation Satellite System is a satellite-based radio navigation system owned and operated by the China National Space Administration. It provides geolocation and time information to a BDS receiver anywhere on or near the Earth.
High precision of Iran’s missiles after ditching US controlled GPS | Wauck
A de facto, total maritime blockade of the Ukrainian coastline.
According to comprehensive industry briefs published by the Financial Times, the relentless Russian precision missile and drone campaign against the three vital port installations of southwestern Ukraine has achieved total operational denial.
Russian Strikes Wipe Out Ukrainian Army Fuel Reserves at Key Port Near Odessa: MoD | Sput
CBB Weekly Commentary
Chair Warsh’s first Congressional testimonies went off without a hitch. He’s certainly a smooth talker. The Fed “put,” so fundamental to market speculation and leverage excesses, is safe, secure, and off limits.
US interest rate expectations continue to arguably be the key driver for the dollar. | Marc
The 30-day correlation of changes in the Dollar Index and the two-year US Treasury yield is near 0.60, and the correlation with changes in the December Fed funds futures contract is closer to -0.70.
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y BTC CLZ6
The Week in Pictures
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