April 18
Bitcoin is down 1.80% to $75.756 from $77,146 Friday | 4:17pm Saturday
Last weel May crude sank $12.72, or 13.2%, to $83.85 (up 46% ytd)
June oil closed at $82.59, putting the May/June oil spread at a tight -$1.26 (risk on).
Cargoes for delivery in the coming weeks changed hands above $140 | Doug Noland
Iran Denies the Strait is Open. No Surprise, Trump Lied About a Deal | Mish
Additionally the IRGC spokesman rebuked Trump’s nuclear claims
With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open. | Moon
Trump’s flurry of messaging was primarily directed at manipulating the stock and oil markets | John
Next week: Retail sales and S&P PMI
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50-50 chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end
AAA gasoline drops to $$4.058 from $4.135 a week ago
S&P Oil FX Gold BTC 10Y
Doug Noland Weekly
The S&P500’s 4.5% gain this week boosted the rally off March 30th lows (13 sessions) to 13.0%
10Y was seven bps lower this week, but remain 31 bps higher in the seven weeks of war
Dollar Index declined 0.6% to 98.098 (down 0.6% y-t-d)
Gold gained 1.7% to $4,830 (up 11.8%)
“A buildup of leveraged hedge fund bets in Treasuries has left investors exposed to abrupt position shifts that could amplify stress across global bond markets, according to Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok. Hedge funds now own roughly 8% of the entire $31 trillion US Treasury market. /// Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan in order to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries
The US War Machine Underwhelms | Hua
The simple fact the US war goal has changed from “regime change” to “keep the Strait of Hormuz open” already points to the strategic defeat of the US, since the strait was open to all before the war.
The Pentagon has laid all its cards on the table. In any other conflict scenario such as Taiwan, the US has no additional “miracle weapons” to take to the fight. Even against the very limited Iranian air defense which lags China or Russia by 2 to 3 generations, the massed US firepower has failed to significantly degrade Iran’s military power or suppress its counter-offensive.
Debt Rattle
John Rubino is still warning of a currency crisis.
Russia cautioned Finland and Baltic states against allowing Kiev to use airspace for attacks on Russia
The Week in Pictures
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at 1:00 AM