August 7
Bitcoin Price
$64,954 with oil at $77.08 | 5:00pm Friday
AlJz
Iran wants to be acknowledged as ‘gatekeeper of Strait of Hormuz’
.
Iran
US slaps new sanctions on Iran but insists peace deal is imminent
News
The US will publish consumer inflation data next week
Cleveland Fed sees headline CPI at .09 m/m and 3.42 y/y. Core .21 and 2.52
Also PPI, retail sales, and Michigan Consumer Confidence
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a record close of 7,758
2Y is lower in yield by 5.2bp to 4.206% | 13:51
10Y is 4.654%, lower in yield by 2.7bp
Yield curve moves steepener on bullish NFP
Wolf
The Private Sector Gains 30,000 jobs, but Local Governments Shed 57,000 Jobs
Supply of Labor Continues to Shrink. Crackdown on illegal immigration and boomer retirements continued to reduce the labor force, causing unemployment to drop further.
Iran
Mecca pact ties three Sunni powers together as Iran-backed attacks loom. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca on Friday that never once named a threat, and within hours Iranian officials and clerics had named it for them, mocking the agreement and promising that "the roar of our missiles" will reach its signatories.
Moon
A new NATO like agreement between three major Sunni states throws up various questions. I find it hard to understand how this new agreement could possibly have more than symbolic value. While this new agreement may have no short term consequences it may however, over the years, develop into something stronger. A sign for that would be the stationing of Turkish troops in Saudi Arabia to take up the bases the U.S. will soon be leaving.
Israel
Pact links NATO member, nuclear state and host of Muslim holy sites; three Sunni countries say deal not directed at any particular country, but all are wary of Iran and Israel
Zero
Houston, We Have A (Data) Problem.
Instead of worrying about Warsh, what he did or didn’t say, how often he might or might not say things, to who he may or may not speak to, maybe we should worry about making decisions based on garbage data?
Zero
Massive prior revisions: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported. ||| Forex: The three-month average to just 20K jobs.
Zero
Exit Narrative Begins. Trump's Muted Response To Hormuz Deal Suggests The 'Declare Victory & Leave' Moment Is Here. Doves who see this war as disastrous and hope for quick exit will welcome the development.
Mish
The Yen has resumed its weakening trend since last week’s joint intervention by the US and Japan. It takes about three weeks for markets to fully erase the impact of intervention on $/JPY. We’re well on our way towards that now. The emperor has no clothes.
Washington sold euros to lift yen without informing European Central Bank: Report | Cradle
AAA
Gasoline is $4.042 vs $4.106 a week ago
Peak
Sen. Alex Padilla introduced the Stop Corrupt Trading Act to bar the president, vice president, and related entities from selling advance access to presidential social media statements. The bill follows the launch of Truth API by Trump Media. Trump Media has described the API as standard data licensing of public information.
Scotus
Trump signs new birthright citizenship and “birth tourism” orders.
PWire
Iran Hopes to Deal Trump a Blow at Midterms
Debt Rattle
Paul is BYPASSING Senate Democrats, and bringing this straight to the DOJ. Next 5 years in court?
Wauck
To Escalate Or Not--And Who Will Do It?
My view is that, at this point, Iran actually wants the war to continue.
Doug Macgregor’s view is that Trump will escalate either because of his personal psychology (he’s a gambler) or because he’s being blackmailed—or, I suppose, a little of both.
Simpl
Testy New Interview Reveals the Changing Colors of Robert Kagan.
Oy vey! Someone is extremely defensive over the repudiation of what is essentially his life’s work.
Kunst
I don’t see how the Democratic Party as currently configured survives this four-way squeeze.
* The party’s platform, readily identifiable for some years now as the “Woke” catalog.
* The Democratic Party’s criminal portfolio. The Covid-19 operation was basically theirs.
* The party’s widespread and atrocious racketeering operation
* The rise of communism and jihad as the Party’s new rallying cries
Reporter
The West began to nervously investigate why their doctrines weren't working and their weapons weren't the best in the world. It turns out that the West's military innovations are practically exhausted on the Ukrainian battlefield: Russia has adapted and countered most of the weapons and doctrines used.
Trump is genuinely angered by his Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, who has been struggling unsuccessfully with alcoholism for a long time. Trump started the war with Iran and, according to reports, was confident the US had sufficient weapons. However, they didn't, and the war is stalling. Therefore, an embarrassed Trump demanded that Hegseth explain why stockpiles of precision-guided Tomahawks, ATACMS, Patriot interceptors, and THAAD are dwindling before his eyes. Hegseth, who had promised a quick victory over Iran, tried to shift the blame to his deputy at a meeting, but Trump rebuked him.
Top
Donald Trump continues his battle with the "fake media," this time criticizing The Washington Post for a report claiming he was dissatisfied with the Pentagon chief's performance. On his social media platform, TruthSocial, Trump published an entire post calling the report "false."
Trump Meets With Zelenskyy To Ask For U.S. Missiles | Bee
NYP
Trump defends Pete Hegseth after report he lashed out at war secretary: ‘One of my best’
Doug Casey Site
The Fourth Turning does not end with a return to the prior equilibrium. It ends with a new order — better or worse, depending on which forces prevail in the decisive battles of the crisis era.
AmTh
Globalism Must Be Vanquished. Today’s internationalists were yesterday’s imperialists. Ten or fifteen years ago, calling someone a “globalist” didn’t have much effect. Today, it is well understood as a pejorative that highlights someone’s allegiance to international institutions over those created within a nation state.
Focal
Gates Foundation Funds First-Ever Creation of 16 Synthetic Viruses Using AI. The barrier separating digital AI output from an operational biological agent has now been crossed.
Zero
The Senate finally passed a bill imposing major new sanctions on Russia and Iran.
The bill had bipartisan support, with a vote of 86 to 11, and now it will go to the House - where it is expected to be passed there too
Paul was the only Republican rejecting the initiative. | Sput
Russia’s Newest Battlefield Weapon Is Aimed at Starlink
Named “Volna Kupol Grant,” the system directs high-frequency radio signals toward Starlink satellites, preventing them from receiving communications within its operating area.
Email: wkidder42@gmail.com
Text: 1 646 257 2130
WhatsApp +1 646 257 2130 at 1:00 AM