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July 18

BTC was $63,789 late Friday

Attack on Kuwaiti desalination plant ‘will have significant impact’
US strikes bridges and tunnel as Iran widens attacks across Persian Gulf | Iran
Iran urges Jordanians to confront US forces stationed in the country | Press

A de facto, total maritime blockade of the Ukrainian coastline.
The structural liquidation of Ukraine’s primary economic engine is now a matter of documented record. According to comprehensive industry briefs published by the Financial Times, the relentless Russian precision missile and drone campaign against the three vital port installations of southwestern Ukraine—Chornomorsk, Yuzhne, and Odessa itself—has achieved total operational denial.

FP! Week In Review
* There’s this legal doctrine about witness testimony: falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus—false in one thing, false in everything. AI scenario-building may need a variant: absurdum in uno, absurdum in omnibus.
* Down with American data centers! Up with Chinese AI!

CBB Weekly Commentary
Chair Warsh’s first Congressional testimonies went off without a hitch. He’s certainly a smooth talker. The Fed “put,” so fundamental to market speculation and leverage excesses, is safe, secure, and off limits.

US interest rate expectations continue to arguably be the key driver for the dollar. | Marc
The 30-day correlation of changes in the Dollar Index and the two-year US Treasury yield is near 0.60, and the correlation with changes in the December Fed funds futures contract is closer to -0.70.

Momentum Meltdown Catches Traders By Surprise
Underneath the calm surface, one of the most crowded trades on the planet came apart. Goldman Sachs’ high-beta momentum basket fell about 24% month-to-date through the first half of July, its worst stretch since April 2009. Morgan Stanley’s tech momentum index posted a 17-day rate of change of -35%, the worst reading in the 27 years that desk has tracked it.

Carville Says AOC Has No Shot at Democratic Nomination | PWire
Trial Lawyers Against AV's because they earn huge amounts litigating ordinary auto accidents | Margin
Apple and Google suppressed negative Graham Platner stories for months on their news platform | CTH
Rape Allegations Mar Reputation Of Local Nazi | Bee

Debt Rattle
China Produced Fake US Driver’s Licenses to Manufacture Tens of Thousands of Biden Mail-In Votes in 2020 Now we know why they pushed to Vote By Mail and changed election law to allow mass Mail-In Ballots

If Congress does not find a way to vote that bill out to Mr. Trump’s desk before they recess for the rest of the summer in late July, Mr. Trump will invoke an executive order under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) — Public Law 94-412; codified at 50 U.S.C. §§ 1601–1651 — requiring the fifty states to employ all the same provisions that are in the SAVE America Act for the 2026 midterm elections. Under the NEA, the federal courts cannot be used to fight or strike down the executive order; it can only be stopped by a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate.

The new British prime minister will fail.
Yes, the EngLit-ter Andy Burnham is very like the lawyer Barack Obama, another intellectually mediocre narcissist who offered “Hope and Change” to a country speeding towards bankruptcy and civil war. Obama didn’t rescue America, of course. Instead, he stamped pedal to the metal on the Highway to Hell. Burnham will do the same in Britain.
The Yookay: The United Kingdom, as having been impacted by perceived failures in multicultural policy

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Week Ahead: Leading indicators and regional Fed surveys
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a September rate increase
AAA gasoline is about to move above its month ago level: $3.992 vs $3.999 a month ago

The Week in Pictures

The Mystery of Queue: Q is followed by four silent vowels.


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