August 22
FP! Week In Review
A selection of pro-progress and anti-progress news items from the past week.
Today’s Peak Digest
Speaking of sanctions not resolving problems, Iranian lawmakers submitted a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, citing US sanctions and military actions.
Chinese institutions have developed AI models of the US electorate. A Fudan University project analyzed 171 million X posts to simulate election outcomes.
BTC is $77,261 | 13:21 Sat
BTC was $76,740 on Friday when oil was $86.94
Legal
State Department Steps In After University Suspends American Scholar Who Exposed Jason Arday
This is the question raised by American academic Nathan Cofnas in a blog post accusing University of Cambridge professor Jason Arday of plagiarism and fabricating parts of his widely publicized life story.
“Wouldn’t it be the most ridiculous story ever told, if the boy who couldn’t read and write at 18 gets a PhD before he’s 30?”
Doug Noland Weekly
As a career hedge fund operator, Bessent should know better than for the Treasury to attempt to dictate so-called “market equilibrium.”
Wolf
Long-Term Treasury Yields Surge, Wipe Out Effect of Bessent’s Hocus-Pocus Treasury Buybacks in 2 Days
Bond Market Not to Be Played With. If bond buyers lose confidence, they’ll demand even higher yields. Bessent better watch out with his games.
Breit
Everyone Got Worried About the Long Bond. The dumbest thing that happened this week is that the financial press and many Wall Street analysts became convinced that rising yields on long-dated Treasury bonds indicated a surge of investor anxiety over inflation. While it’s true that yields on the 30-year Treasury rose to their highest since 2007, this had nothing to do with inflation anxiety. The proof of this is that the yields on inflation-protected bonds did not rise significantly.
QTR
What if the 10 year treasury keeps moving towards 6%? Nobody knows exactly where the breaking point is, but we are getting closer to finding out. Now federal debt is above $40 trillion, interest expense is enormous, Treasury issuance is relentless and the marginal buyer is starting to ask for more compensation.
News
Trade Talks With Canada Collapse, Trump Will Seriously Regret This | Mish
Trump To Flood US With 300,000 Tons Of Tariff-Free Ground Beef Ahead Of Midterms | Zero
CTH
A Direct and Confrontational U.S-Canada Trade War is Now a Reality
The news is exceptionally bad for Canada. Worse than bad. The divide between the two economies and trade policy is just too big. There was no way for both sides to close the gap without major structural economic changes within Canada. \\ All of this would fall upon Canada to carry out in order to position their economy in alignment with the USA. There’s literally no way for their government to accomplish this against the backdrop of their political ideology.
Zero
Refined-product markets have emerged as the epicenter of the global energy crisis, with commodity desks across Wall Street, including Goldman, Citi, Bank of America and Jefferies, warning that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine's ongoing long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are converging into a perfect storm for global fuel supplies.
Diesel is $5.595 vs $5.181 a month ago
Gasoline is $4.102 vs $4.060 a month ago
Moon
Bessent’s fevered attempts to find ways to put economic pressure on Iran is telling everyone that the Trump administration does not want to go back to fighting. It wants to keep the blockade on Iran but without further bombing. Iran can not live with that. That is why Iran’s Security Council is likely to escalate and to increase its pressure on the U.S.
John
The Cushion Ran Out: Bessent’s Oil “Mystery” Isn’t One
What America produces is light sweet shale; what its refineries were built to run is heavy sour. Nearly 70 percent of U.S. refining capacity is optimized for heavier grades. United States still has to import sour crude to make diesel and jet
Iran
Iran lawmaker warns Qatar, Kuwait, UAE over hosting US aircraft
Bessent due Monday to detail new Iran sanctions: another major round of economic pressure
US maritime blockade has cut Iranian crude loadings to about one-seventh of prewar levels
AlJaz
Tehran says US sanctions on Iran ‘declaration of war’ on all nations
Debt Rattle
Modern civilization runs on diesel. Trucks transport food and consumer goods, farmers operate machinery, construction companies run heavy equipment, and emergency generators protect hospitals and critical infrastructure. When diesel rises, the cost of virtually everything rises with it.
Discussions between the U.S and Canada have collapsed. All trade representatives are called back home. The 50% U.S. tariffs against Canada are now in effect. A trade war begins.
AOC for President? It’s Time We Take That Proposition Seriously
Robotaxi has been approved for a permit to operate 5,000 fully autonomous vehicles in Las Vegas
"Never send an organic to do a machine's job." Organic. That's you. that's the word for humans now.
Next Week: The Warsh Speech at Jackson Hole
Data: Personal income and spending, PCE prices, durable goods, and the annual revision to NFP
After the Treasury buyback announcement, the Warsh speech could actually be a market-moving event
Earnings by Nvidia will remain a bellwether for global AI demand
The Week In Pictures
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
The S&P500 declined 1.4% (up 12.1% y-t-d)
Two-year government yields rose seven bps to 4.24% (up 76bps y-t-d)
Ten-year Treasury yields increased four bps to 4.73% (up 57bps)
Long bond yields added a basis point to 5.27% (up 43bps)
Dollar Index declined 0.8% to 98.839 (up 0.5% y-t-d)
Spot Gold rallied 6.7% to $4,603 (up 6.6%)
WTI Crude surged $4.66, or 5.7%, to $87.06 (up 52%)
Remember the Names | Kunstler
Many of the political celebrities mentioned above, and probably many not-so-well-known players, must be freaking out as the waves ominously pound the beach and the summer days tick down toward the ill winds of fall.
A Murse is a slang term for a man's purse, a functional and stylish bag carried by men, often resembling a messenger bag, crossbody, or satchel.
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