October 14
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
S&P is down 0.94% | 11:51
Oil is up 0.99%. Brent is $105.91
Gold is down $82
Dollar index is up 0.64% to 102.84
Euro down to $1.1126
Rate-hike odds have soared to 50% for October.| Zero
2Y yield spikes 6.8bp to 4.865%
10Y is higher by 1.7bp to 5.239%
A bear flattener can lead to widening corporate spreads, indicating increased risk aversion
News
Social Security benefits will get a 3.6 percent increase next year
Headline rate up by 0.6% for a 3.7% y/y
Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4%
The core rate comes in hot, rising by 0.3% for a 2.6% y/y pace.
The big culprit was energy prices, up 5.2% in September and up 20.4% YoY
The food index increased 2.5%.
Iranian officials have warned of possible ground invasions of Gulf neighbors | Peak
if the US restarts major bombing after the midterms, with IRGC operatives potentially penetrating countries to deter a US assault and punish allies
In Ukraine, SpaceX capped StarShield military Starlink terminals at 100 mph, affecting drone strike and interceptor missions, with some canceled. The policy bars remote drone piloting and military activity beyond recreation. It occurred as Kyiv struck Russian refineries amid US threats to halt intelligence sharing.
News
Yemeni army strikes Riyadh airport, Aramco refineries in retaliatory operation | Cradle
Ship sinks near Hormuz, Aramco HQ hit in widening Mideast war | Iran
SpaceX Reportedly Slows Starlink Speed As Kiev Defies Calls To Halt Refinery Strikes | Zero
Cleveland Fed CPI Forecasts for October
Headline: 0.28 m/m and 3.78% y/y
Core: 0.21 m/m and 2.48% y/y
China North Industries Group Corporation is training its Fuxi humanoid robots for riot control | Insta
‘Evil Sanctuary Policies’: Mullin Slams New York for Ignoring 16,000 ICE Detainers.
Kimberly Guilfoyle good judgment could have been questioned when she was Mrs. Gavin Newsom and the first lady of San Francisco during Newsom's first two years as mayor of that city
Debt Rattle
Trump buys $6 BILLION of oil and gas from Russia and there’s a Backlash? Seriously? Europe has spent MORE THAN €375 BILLION buying Russian oil, gas and coal in the last 3 years. And they’ve never stopped buying! In fact they bought almost €3 BILLION of the stuff in August
Trump implied that there could be evidence linking Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Somalia) to millions in lucrative fraud.
When US leadership waves the flag of foreign nation on the House floor.
Israel’s New – and Terrifying – Security Doctrine | Anti=War
1. The United States is a “declining power”
2. Primacy of Jewish Identity over Democracy
3. Peace as a Means Rather Than an End
4. “Rejection of the Independent Existence of Arab States
5. “War as a Foundational State
6. “Absolute Priority for Initiative and Offense over Defense
What The NFL Can Teach Us About Risk Management | RIA
Ranked: Countries That Owe the Most Money to the IMF
Argentina owes the IMF $56.8 billion, nearly four times as much as second-place Ukraine.
Waymo has a fleet of more than four thousand cars in fifteen cities across the U.S. | Sailer
But where will Tom Friedman go to get his insights into public opinion if there are no more drivers to interview on his way to the airport?
Sponcon: content posted usually by an influencer on social media that looks like a typical post but for which the poster has been paid to advertise a product or service
There are three things in the world that deserve no mercy: hypocrisy, fraud, and tyranny.
During the first six months of 2026, European buyers gorged on practically every liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo Russia’s Yamal plant could produce. Of the 140 ships that set sail from that facility, 136 offloaded their life-nourishing bounty in Europe. Analysts estimate the revenue generated from these sales to be on the order of $7 billion—funds that were presumably funneled to President Vladimir Putin’s war machine
Guess Which European Country Is Tolerating Child Marriages? | Zero
Germany
Miami recorded the fastest population growth among the 45 major U.S. urban areas | Visual
increasing 5.1% between 2022 and 2024. Four Florida urban areas ranked among the seven fastest-growing, while Columbus, Ohio, placed fourth nationally. Pittsburgh recorded the largest population decline, at 1.1%, while 42 of the 45 urban areas continued to grow.
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