Kidder Reports

April 17

Week Ahead: The potential for an agreement between Iran and the US to end their war will continue to dominate market movements and the outlook of the global economy, with promising signals from both sides recently hinting at a resolution. Corporate earnings results also remain in the spotlight with results due from Tesla, Intel, UnitedHealth, Amex, and P&G.

For economic data, retail sales will be closely eyed, and the S&P PMI will be featured. Regarding US monetary policy, Fed Chair Nominee Warsh will testify before Congress in his first public speaking regarding the cargo.

S&P Oil FX Gold BTC 10Y
Iran says Strait of Hormuz reopened after Lebanon ceasefire | MEE
Trump Hails Hormuz Reopening As U.S. Reportedly Weighs $20 Billion Cash-For-Nukes Deal | Zero

Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50-50 chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end
AAA gasoline drops to $4.076 from $4.153 a week ago

Oil is down $10.81 to $83.83. | 9:37
Brent trades about $5.10 higher
S&P is up 0.79%
Gold is up 1.55%
Dollar index is down 0.50%
10Y is lower by 7.2bp to 4.248%

It is unknown if, how and when the issue of the blockade is to be solved. | Moon
As USrael were unwilling to commit to the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire, as negotiated, Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed. The accumulating economic damage caused by the closure put pressure on the U.S. to rectify the issue. Yesterday, after increasing pressure from Washington DC, Israel finally agreed to temporarily cease its war in Lebanon:

A ceasefire in Lebanon was announced on Thursday by US President Donald Trump, but its reality tells a very different story. The ceasefire was not the product of American diplomacy, nor Israeli strategic calculation. It was imposed—largely as a result of sustained Iranian pressure. | MEM

NATO is four dead letters. Kunstler
Much of Europe, it turns out, are not our friends, either. They would not let us use the NATO bases we pay for to conduct air operations over Iran. Hence, NATO is four dead letters. They can go dangle while they figure out how to live without oil, possibly go back to their centuries-long condition as a nonstop slaughterhouse, besetting each other with stupid, age-old feuds. Not our problem anymore.

The closer this Iran war comes to a favorable resolution, the more garishly negative the puling Lefty-left gets, wishing fervently for the enemy to prevail. Why? Because the Lefty-left is also an enemy of our country. They want the operation to fail so they can reclaim power and resume wrecking and looting the USA.

Debt Rattle
* The CIA tried to remove a President.
By now it’s hard to see how all those involved in conspiring against Trump could escape prosecution. The list is long, and it includes Obama.

* Trump ‘Permanently Opening’ Strait of Hormuz ‘for China’.
China buys more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. Not much of a blockade left then?

• New Hungarian Prime Minister Says Borders Will Remain Shut To Immigrants.
Did Orban and Trump set this up?

NewMexit: Secession in the Southwest?
Lea and Roosevelt counties are seeking to secede and join the state of Texas. Ludwig von Mises wrote many times that a group of people in a sovereign nation or province should have the freedom to secede from that place to join another like-minded province or nation or become an independent nation. These two counties are part of a growing US movement where people in counties tire of their state’s policies and taxation that inhibit economic growth, lessen individual freedom, issue cumbersome regulations interfering with operation of a privately-owned business and family decision-making.

Two simple tests for bad commentary on the Iran War
There is a lot of poor quality commentary about on the current Iran War—or, as the Chinese call it, the War in West Asia.

Congrats on paying your taxes this week. The relevant authorities will surely put the money to good use. New York City residents, for example, will help fund the construction of a communist supermarket in Manhattan, aka The People’s Boondoggle. If all goes to plan, which it won’t, the store will be up and running by 2029. It will cost just $30 million to build, $20 million a year to operate, and will only marginally increase the existing budget deficit of $5.4 billion. For the same amount of money, Mamdani could bankroll a million free memberships to Costco, which is located a few blocks away and has already achieved the mayor’s stated goal of creating jobs and selling food at a discount.

Mamdani Looking Into Whether He Can Tax Residents Of Other Cities | Bee

Instapundit
Democrat Senator Ruben Gallego Now Accused of Sexual Misconduct

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