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June 4

S&P   Oil   FX   Gold  10Y  TW$   CLZ6

S&P is down 0.01% | 10:50
Oil is down $3.22 to $92.80
10Y is lower by 3.3bp to 4.466%
Gold is up $28

Israel and Lebanon continued to exchange strikes to strain their ceasefire, limiting the likelihood of an imminent agreement between the US and Iran that would lift the tanker blockade from the Persian Gulf

Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 3-Month High, rose by 13,000 to 225,000
Challenger: AI drives tech sector to cut jobs by the most since 2023 | Forex
Blackstone's Private Credit Fund Joins Peers In Gating Investors After Surge In Redemptions | Zero
Trump Approval Index hits new low at 40% | Ras

“I could end the deficit in five minutes,” he said.
“You just pass a law that says that any time there’s a deficit of more than three percent of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election. Yeah, yeah, now you’ve got the incentives in the right place, right?” —Warren E. Buffett, retired insurance salesman, Omaha Nebraska

The House passed a War Powers Resolution | Anti-War
The measure, brought under the War Powers Resolution, would require congressional approval for continued U.S. military action against Iran. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it has a chance to pass since a similar Iran War Powers resolution advanced in the chamber last month. The resolution would not be close to getting a veto-proof majority, but passing it through both the House and Senate would send a message to the administration that could make it more politically difficult to restart the full-scale bombing campaign against Iran.

Confirmed — Donald Trump Believes Iran Has The Bomb | John
While the US intelligence community probably cannot confirm that Iran actually does have a functioning nuke, the Pakistanis believe the Iranians do. The intercepted chat between Pezeshkian and Shariff, followed by Rubio’s conversation with Ishaq Dar, convinced Trump and his advisors that Iran was not making a hollow threat. Now we know why there has been a dramatic change in Trump’s rhetoric towards Iran

Debt Rattle
* SpaceX Reportedly Targets $135 IPO Price --As Morningstar says valuation should be halved
* Anyone seen Fauci lately? COVID-19 Was Spread Intentionally on Multiple Continents

ECB says gold is the reserve asset most held by central banks
Due to valuation increase, not purchases
Over the past century, the US dollar has lost 99% of its value against gold

Over the past month, the Russian Ruble has strengthened 4.12%, and is up by 6.29% over the last 12 months.

El Niño likelihood raised to 82% | Zero
The El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in Dec 2026-Feb 2027, NOAA)

In California a 17 year-old can drive a car but can’t ride alone in an Uber or a Waymo.
California’s large volume of mail-in ballots mean the final result won’t be known for days or weeks

NJ spends $8.2M to defend illegals from deportation, including through university law clinics.
Samsung moves U.S. headquarters from New Jersey to Texas

The University of Oregon Grapples With a Budget Crisis After Years of Woke Excess | Turley

“One juror repeatedly said they wouldn’t feel right putting a ‘brother’ in prison.” | Insta
We’ve seen an increasing reluctance of black jurors to convict black defendants who target white people. That means that there’s cause to dismiss them if they feel that way, or if prosecutors think they do and use a peremptory challenge.

Panopticon
A circular prison built with cells arranged radially so that a guard at a central position can see all the prisoners. The British author George Orwell imagined, in “1984,” a world where Big Brother forced cameras into every room, every corridor. The gaze was imposed. The terror was explicit. But what Orwell could not have imagined was a world where the surveillance device would one day retail for $299 and people would line up to buy it. | StCult

Petrichor
A distinctive, earthy, usually pleasant odor that is associated with rainfall especially when following a warm, dry period and that arises from a combination of volatile plant oils and geosmin released from the soil into the air and by ozone carried by downdrafts

per curiam
An opinion delivered by an entire court rather than a single judge.


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