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March 26

S&P   Oil   FX   Gold   Silver  10Y
Brent is up to $107.95 | 12:34
S&P is down 0.76%
10Y is 4.387%, higher by 5.2bp
Dollar index up 0.20%

Cleveland Fed MONTHLY Headline Inflation Nowcast Is 0.76% or annualized rate of 9.51%
Jobless Claims up slightly to 210,000 from 205,000, Still Near Record Lows
Goldman Sachs sees a 30% chance of a recession this year, up previous 25% prediction | PW
The market doubts that Iran is begging Trump to make a deal | Forex

Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday, trading around $4,460 per ounce and nearing their lowest level since early January, as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed crude prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and prompting investors to abandon hopes for US interest rate cuts this year.

Iran reiterated its denial of ongoing negotiations with Washington, while President Donald Trump stated that Iran is "begging" to make a deal, though he questioned whether the US is "willing" to strike one now.

The uncertainty drove the US dollar and Treasury yields higher, with markets now assigning a 38% probability of a rate hike by December and a 93% chance of unchanged rates at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting. Just 3% of traders expect a rate cut in December, a sharp reversal from pre-conflict expectations of at least two cuts in 2026.

Retired General Mike Flynn reaches $1.25M settlement with feds over Russia collusion pursuit | JTN
U.S. intercepted Ukraine government messages discussing plot to route money to Biden re-election | JTN

Debt Rattle
Shock New Evidence Showing No Link Between CO2 and Temperature Over Last Three Million Years
Trump Sends 2,000 Paratroopers, Iran Dares Them To Come Closer (RT)
EU Shelves Russian Oil Ban As Iran War Rattles Energy Markets (RT)


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