May 13
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y
Chinese Supertanker Sails Out Of Hormuz. Only the third tanker carrying oil for China | Zero
The producer price index climbed 6% year on year, exceeding all forecasts
Fading expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement weighed on sentiment
Concerns over stagflation pressures and higher bond yields continued to pressure
U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket | Zero
S&P is up 0.08% | 10:15
Oil is up $1.10 to $103.27
10Y is 4.480, higher by 2.3bp its highest level since July 2025
Dollar index is up 0.22% to 98.52, its third consecutive session of gains
The shocker is the spike in services, and services dominate the PPI. | Wolf
The services PPI weighs 68% of the overall PPI, and it completely blew out – that was in addition to the spike in energy prices, and it also shows how some of the energy price increases have moved into other parts of the economy.
Rate INCREASES Are Coming - Big Ones | MTick
Nearly 60 percent of the April rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.2-percent advance in the index for final demand services. That's not fuel costs as a result of the Iran war.
Global bond market meltdown intensifying | Naked
US 30Y yield above 5.02%, 10Y nearing 4.50%. Japan 20Y at highest since 1996. UK 30Y gilt at highest since 1998. Dismal 10Y auction — 4th tailing in a row, lowest foreign demand since Jan 2025. Kobeissi warning mortgages heading back above 7%.
There's NO sign underlying inflation is picking up despite yesterday's "hot" CPI
I should clarify upfront that I’m an inflation “dove.” It feels to me like we’re on the cusp of a major automation wave in white-collar jobs that are heavily administrative and repetitive. There’ll be lots of people chasing far fewer jobs in coming years, which will put downward pressure on wages. I just can’t see how - with that as a backdrop - underlying inflation has room to pick up, even with everything that’s going on now.
Turn USPS into the Federal Mail Exchange | A.Muse
The institution we have was designed for a country that no longer exists, and to build something simpler in its place.
Why are fast food companies trading so poorly?
Since the start of hostilities with Iran, MCD is down nearly 20% while the broader market recovered initial losses and rallied to record highs. It’s not just fast food giant MCD trading poorly. Many of its competitors are at or near 52-week lows. Leading the list is that consumers at the lower end of the wealth spectrum are tapped out due to higher inflation and spending less on eating out. Moreover, profit margins are under pressure as expenses rise due to minimum wage hikes in many states and rising food costs.
Checkmate. The trap is this
A renewed escalation would likely lead to the destruction of the region’s oil, gas, and desalination infrastructure, causing a prolonged global catastrophe. Iran can credibly impose costs that the United States cannot bear and that the world should not suffer.
Negative “real” rates: CPI Inflation Blows Past Fed Rates | Wolf
The year-over-year CPI, rising by 3.8%, has now blown by the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates of 3.5% to 3.75%, thereby turning the Fed’s policy rates negative in “real” terms (adjusted for CPI). This situation of short-term borrowing costs below the rate of inflation is stimulative of inflation and of the economy. The bond market should freak out if the Fed sits on its hands and watches it play out.
Trump is coming to Beijing with his cap in his hand. | Moon
He, as usual, will try to bluff a way to ‘victory’. He will proceed as if the U.S. were in a great position. The Chinese will be polite, but won’t have any of it. There have been little preparations for the trip. The sherpas did not convene beforehand to straighten out serious issues between the countries. There are no big contracts or treaties to sign.
Debt Rattle
* What do you use 40 biolabs for? Do we need to pay more attention?
* Here Are The People Accompanying Trump On His China Excursion. KR: What a pack...
* Media Spreads Hantavirus Hysteria In Attempt To Save Disgraced WHO (ZH)
* Over 500,000 Waiting To Cross Into Europe From Libya – Greek Minister (RT)
George Orwell wrote in 1944 about Facism | Insta
“It will be seen that, as used, the word ‘Fascism’ is almost entirely meaningless. In conversation, of course, it is used even more wildly than in print. I have heard it applied to farmers, shopkeepers, Social Credit, corporal punishment, fox-hunting, bull-fighting, the 1922 Committee, the 1941 Committee, Kipling, Gandhi, Chiang Kai-Shek, homosexuality, Priestley’s broadcasts, Youth Hostels, astrology, women, dogs and I do not know what else.”
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at 1:00 AM