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February 24

S&P   Oil   FX   Gold   Silver  10Y   USH
S&P is up 0.72% | 2:28
Dollar index is up 0.14%
Gold is down 1.46% to $5,151
Oil is $65.55, down 1.08% 10Y is 4.036%, flat

January PPI is due Friday | Marc
PPI can ease from 3.0% to around 2.6%. Core could ease to 3.0% from 3.3%
AAA gasoline is up m/m to $2.951 from $2.862

Gasoline futures fell below $2, moving away from a five-month high of $2.01 hit on February 19
AAA gasoline up to $2.951 vs $2.862 a month ago
Natural gas futures fell below $3 per MMBtu, their lowest level since October

Traders awaited developments from nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which are set for a third round on Thursday in Geneva, according to Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi. Donald Trump said he favors a diplomatic solution but warned of consequences if no deal is reached, keeping markets cautious given the Strait of Hormuz’s role as a key route for nearly a third of global tanker traffic. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries forced Russian companies to export crude rather than gasoline.

Four weeks ago Trump threatened Iran with another attack over its nuclear program | Moon
It was a mistake because, as I explained, Iran is no easy target. What Trump wants is another symbolic victory. He has started, like usual, with a gigantic threat in the hope to receive a minor concession that will allow him to chicken out. I doubt that Iran is in the mood to give him whatever he is asking for.

Neocons Grow Nervous Trump Won’t Strike Iran, appear worried diplomacy might break out | TAC
Huge Number Of US Allied Forces Exit Erbil Airbase, Fearing Iran Retaliation | Zero

One by one, the major market leaders are breaking down.
I now believe the rest of the overall market is about to play catch up to the downside. And ultimately, I believe the S&P 500 will drop ~10%, bringing it to the 6,300s.

Debt Rattle
* Former CIA officer John Kiriakou says the only officials opposing the attack are JD Vance and Tulsi Gabbard


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