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October 8

Mkts  2Y  10Y  30Y
S&P is down 0.51%. Tech Shares Plunge | 3:47 Crude Oil is up 3.48% to $91.35
Brent is near $104
Trump: No attack on Iran before US elections; ‘productive’ talks ongoing | AlJaz

Gold is up $17
Dollar index is down 0.12% to 102.11
10Y is lower by 6.5bp to 5.230%
30Y is 5.604% after $22 billion auction vs high yield of 5.736% earlier today

News
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 tracker 3.6% vs 3.7% prior
Initial Jobless Claims at Over 2-Month Low: 197,000

Iran threat to US bases in Germany emerges as Washington weighs renewed strikes | Iran
Iran Expands Tanker Assaults Beyond Narrow Confines Of Hormuz In Rare Escalation | Zero
Pakistani jets strike Yemen as Turkiye deploys hundreds of troops to support Saudi war: Report | Cradle
Trump Admin Cracks Down On Foreign Worker Fraud: Bans MSFT From H1-B Program | Zero

News
Today’s 30Y auction will provide a further test of demand
"The Crowding Out Effect Is Immense": Others Join SpaceX In AI Chip-Debt SPV Stampede | Zero
Markets give odds of a 25bps hike in December around 71%

US prepares for possible Iran strikes as mediators await Tehran response | Iran
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months
Syria May Send Jihadists To Fight in Yemen | Anti-War
Pentagon asked for strike options that could be executed before the midterm elections
Trump said on Wednesday that he no longer wanted a deal with Iran.

The bond market is coming out from under 14 years of interest rate repression | Wolf
By any historical measure French government debt is not in a crisis | Moon

Trump Might Ultimately Reject Lithuania’s Offer To Host US Bases & Nukes | Kory
Lithuania is competing with neighboring Poland for both of these “honors”

Cleveland Fed sees Sept CPI up 0.53 m/m and 3.60% y/y
Cleveland Fed sees OCTOBER up 0.27 m/m and 3.63% y/y

Insta
I wish we had a sane democratic party. But we don’t.

Debt Rattle
Simplicius reports that money payments to Iran determine whose oil gets out of the Strait of Hormuz
“I'm not sure people totally understand. Starship is the largest flying object ever made.”— Elon Musk

Elon Musk has some unfinished business with PayPal.
Your @handle becomes the address where people pay you. The money arrives instantly, and you can spend it with a titanium (!) X-branded Visa debit card anywhere. Your paycheck can land in the same account through direct deposit, for which Elon will pay you a higher rate of interest. Bill payments and mailed checks cover the less glamorous necessities.

homunculus:
A diminutive human. A miniature, fully formed individual believed by adherents of the early biological theory of preformation to be present in the sperm cell

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