September 3
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
S&P is up 1.12%% | 2:55
Oil is up $0.51 to $91.55. Brent is $95.61
Dollar index is down 0.68% to 98.91, lowest level in nearly two weeks
Gold is up $87
10Y yield is 4.766%, lower by 1.8bp
News
Initial Jobless claims 206K
Bond yields halted their surge and supported credit-sensitive sectors.
Fed's Waller signaled that rate hike is not warranted should underlying inflation continue to slow
Markets are pricing a 50% probability of rate hike this month, down from around 70% earlier in week
Investors await Friday’s jobs report. Consensus estimate +56K (range -25K to +121K)
Key CPI inflation readings are due next week.
WSJ
Economists think Friday’s jobs report will show the U.S. added a seasonally adjusted 53,000 jobs in August. That would be a step up from July’s unexpected loss of 23,000 jobs, and better than the average gain over the previous 12 months of 26,000.
Stepping back from month-to-month noise, economists reckon the U.S. simply doesn’t have enough available young people to deliver much job growth. The population is aging, while the immigration clampdown has reduced the supply of workers. The plus side of that is that even limited hiring can keep the unemployment rate stable. Economists think Friday’s report will show an August unemployment rate of 4.1%, even with July and down a bit from 4.3% a year earlier.
CPI report next Friday (Sept 11) remains the key risk event that could influence interest rate expectations and decide the next direction for gold. As of now, traders are seeing a 58% chance of a rate hike in September. | Forex
Kathy Hochul Tries To Warn People Republicans Will Take Away Women's Rights, But Her Mouth Is Covered By Hijab | Bee
AlJaz
Iran says it targeted bases in Kuwait and UAE over US military support
Iran
Trump says US has 'virtually unlimited' ammunition for Iran war
Israel's Katz threatens to return Iran to 'Stone Age' if it attacks
Iran should cut Persian Gulf internet cables, hardline newspaper says
Trump’s Effort to Revitalize Manufacturing Has Failed, Data Centers Take Over | Mish
Construction spending on Manufacturing has plunged 32.6 percent in two years.
Tariffs did not and will not revitalize US manufacturing.
Debt Rattle
Doug Casey
The U.S. has devolved into a bankrupt multicultural domestic empire. It’s no longer the country which promotes individualism, free minds and free markets. Rather, it’s been captured by a gigantic regulatory bureaucracy which requires permission for most everything, while taking roughly 40% of the GDP directly and indirectly. The military is well-equipped, at gigantic expense, to fight 20th C wars, but totally ill-equipped to fight the kind of wars the US is provoking everywhere.
When Einstein was asked what weapons he thought World War 3 would be fought with, he said he didn’t know. He was only sure that World War 4 would be fought with sticks and stones.
Insta
Mental illness – is not, in itself, a golden ticket to escape from criminal liability. | Insta
The test is right and wrong – can you tell the difference?
Here's An Idea To Get 30% Cheaper Groceries In NYC Without Taxpayer Subsidies
Allow Walmart! There is not one single Walmart in New York City. And it’s not like Walmart hasn’t tried. But despite repeated efforts over the years, Walmart has been completely and effectively prevented from opening any stores in the City. There isn’t actually any specific statute that bans or targets Walmart by name. It’s just that every time Walmart has picked a site and tried to get a project going, local activists rise up and protest, and get the local politicians on their side, until Walmart backs down. In the most recent years, Walmart has mostly given up trying.
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