Kidder Reports

July 8

S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y BTC CLZ6

Oil is $75.83, up 7.69% | 11:47
WTI Extends Gains As Crude Exports Slide, SPR Drain Continues, 'Tank Bottoms' Hit | Zero
Oil prices gains over the past two sessions to over 10%

Dollar index is up 0.23%
S&P is down 0.97%
10Y yield is higher by 4.1bp to 4.597%
Gold is down $73

Iran signals defiance as Trump fumes over Strait of Hormuz strikes | AlJz
Trump on Iran: US will probably hit them again Wednesday night

Today’s Peak Digest
President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over, stating he no longer wished to deal with Iranian leaders, whom he described as “scum” led by “sick people,” and called further negotiations a waste of time.

This came after Iranian forces struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker and a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker. US Central Command then conducted strikes on more than 80 targets in southern Iran, hitting air defenses, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air and antiship missiles, drone launch sites, and port facilities in areas such as Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Qeshm Island in an operation described as four to five times larger in scope than prior actions since the ceasefire.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced one of its largest retaliatory operations, targeting 85 US military sites across the region, including in Bahrain and Kuwait, while claiming to have downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and warned that Gulf states allowing their territory to be used for US strikes would be treated as hostile targets.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that the United States had repeatedly violated the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding since its signing less than 20 days earlier, both directly and through actions in Lebanon, and described the revocation of Iran’s oil-sales license as a clear breach of Clause 10 that demonstrated bad faith, instability, and unreliability. Tehran said it had acted in complete good faith and reserved the right to take any measures necessary to protect its interests.

The US has once again violated the MoU by attacking Iran. | John
To understand the extent of this violation it is essential to recall what is stated in paragraph 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). No where in the document does it stipulate that Iran cannot enforce its Persian Gulf Strait Authority protocols.

The implied probability of a September increase climbing to around 70%, up from 58% the previous day.
Minutes of the FOMC's June meeting to be released later today
Consumer inflation expectations have become unanchored. | Wolf
AAA gasoline ticks up to $3.796 from $3.790 Tuesday

Trump rips NATO allies; calls Spain ‘a terrible partner’
Ukraine hammers Russian energy facilities during NATO meeting
NATO Chief Backs Renewed US Strikes On Iran As 'Absolutely Necessary' | Zero
Most Americans Don't Believe NATO Would Assist If The Country Were Attacked | Zero

Debt Rattle
* We have been the beneficiary of legal immigration.
* NATO’s New Mission Is Not Deterrence, But Russia’s Defeat
* Democratic politicians from New York to California are pushing for a $30 minimum hourly wage
* It is only a matter of time before robots replace these workers
* Evidence that COVID-19 had spread in several countries prior to its discovery in Wuhan, China
* Elon Musk: "There are no useful humanoid robots at this point.

Today’s Peak Digest
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, former Clinton pollster Mark Penn stated that Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates represent an urban-professional movement and described their positions as including defunding police, abolishing prisons, ending private property, and opening borders. Penn called for investigations into whether the DSA receives foreign funding.

The New York Times has come under scrutiny for allegedly withholding sexual assault claims made by Jenny Racicot regarding Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner. The Times had interviewed Racicot and an anonymous third woman for a June article but did not include their sexual assault claims, instead devoting eleven paragraphs to Fifield’s work as a Republican operative.

“Platner’s rise and fall shows a key way President Trump has changed Democratic politics. If it means diminishing his power, Democrats are willing to surrender or temporarily ignore their own stated values.” | PWire

Ukraine’s Planned Drone Plants In The Baltics Are Part Of A Plot To Outflank Poland | Kory
If Poland “loses” the Baltic States to Ukraine, then it’ll slip into geostrategic irrelevancy after the conflict ends, especially since the US would then consider Ukraine to be the most promising regional leader instead of Poland and accordingly privilege Kiev at Warsaw’s expense.

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