August 6
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
S&P is down 0.16% | 3:25
10Y is 4.669%, higher in yield by 5.2bp
Oil is up 3.67%
Gold is down $9 to $4,238
Dollar Index is up 0.29%
News
Oil surges as Strait of Hormuz shipping fears lift risk premium
Crude oil extended its gains after reports that an Iranian parliamentary committee is analyzing a draft proposal outlining restrictive conditions for ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposal, Iran would prohibit US and Israeli vessels from transiting Hormuz and require countries deemed hostile to pay compensation before being granted passage.
Tehran also proposed imposing penalties on violators equivalent to 20% of the value of the cargo carried by a vessel and stated that a full reopening of the strait would depend on the lifting of the US maritime blockade.
Forex
Non-farm payrolls on Friday is expected at +80k vs +57 prior
Unemployment rate is expected at 4.2%, unchanged from June
The next major catalyst is next week's CPI report
Warsh is set to stick with lean Fed messaging despite market backlash. Still, he would be prepared to raise rates in September if inflation readings released in coming weeks are hot, the FT reported.
Markets see around a 58% chance of a Fed rate hike next month, down from 68% on Monday. Attention now turns to the US jobs report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into labour market conditions. Investors expect payroll growth to remain resilient, although ADP data released earlier this week showed private-sector hiring slowed sharply in July.
AlJz
Houthis claim attacks on Yemeni government forces; Hormuz deal close
NYP
Trump insists US has ‘massive amounts’ of munitions, vows to jail ‘treasonous’ leakers
Iran
Iran pushes paid services under proposed Hormuz shipping deal
AAA
Gasoline is $4.063 vs $4.098 a week ago
Anti-War
Iran: Deal With Oman Won't Fully Open Hormuz
PWire
26 states—most led by Republicans—have reduced their individual income-tax rates
Peak Digest
Iran & Oman Reach Hormuz Agreement, US Shifts Nuclear Strategy
Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange topped $14,000 per ton as US stockpiling drains global supply ahead of an expected Section 232 tariff decision that could impose levies up to 50% on semi-finished copper products.
Debt Rattle
El-Sayed’s victory gives the party’s socialist wing a real foothold in a Midwest battleground
But Trump carried Michigan in 2016 and 2024, so we’re not talking about a deep blue state here.
Ukraine Shot Down Zero Missiles In Huge Russian Overnight Salvo
EU has been importing record volumes of Russian liquefied natural gas
Scott Ritter
40 Days that Shook the West. Zelensky and his Western overlords thought they could compel Russia to enter into peace negotiations. All they did is seal Ukraine's tragic fate.
Arm
Moderna Has Found Another Virus to Monetize. COVID was perhaps the most profitable virus in pharmaceutical history.
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