April 15
The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq gained 0.3%, and the Dow Jones added about 70 points on Wednesday, extending the prior session’s gains, with both the S&P and Nasdaq back at pre-war levels and the Dow near early-March highs. Investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, alongside expectations that a second round of talks between the US and Iran could take place soon, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited. | 9:45
S&P Oil FX Gold BTC 10Y
If the blockade persists, Iran’s armed forces “will not allow any exports or imports to continue” in strategic waterways, including the Gulf, Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea. | MEM
Trump says war 'close to over’ as Iran threatens to halt Red Sea trade | Iran
S&P is up 0.09% | 9:06
Crude oil is up $0.75 to $92.01. Brent trades at about a $3.70 premium
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield held around 3.05%, close to 15-year highs
Dollar Index is up 0.06%, threatening to snap a seven-day decline.
10Y is higher by 1.6bp to 4.270%
"Dated Brent at $144 is not just a price record. It's the physical market telling you that real barrels are becoming scarce. The market is pricing in scarcity, not just risk." | A few days ago
The Great Paper vs. Physical Divergence
Let’s be brutally clear: the $92 paper price and the $142+ physical price exist in two different universes. One is a realm of derivatives, algorithms, and political promises. The other is the harsh reality of tankers, pipelines, and dwindling stockpiles.
The Dual SOH Blockade and the Stagflation Ahead | David Stockman
Iran is stopping most of the normal traffic, which is deemed as either friendly to the US and/or Israel, or which has refused to pay the $2 million per ship Iranian transit fee. The US Navy will now be stopping the residual of shipments by Iran to friends like China and India
* Iran military warns will block Red Sea if US naval blockade continues | MEE
* Month-to-month, the overall PPI jumped by 0.51% (+6.3% annualized), seasonally adjusted. | Wolf
But it had already jumped by 6.1% and 6.8% annualized in February and January before the energy price spike hit.
Rand Paul’s “Six Penny Plan” to Balance the Federal Budget in Five Years
Each year for the next five years Congress would reduce the federal budget by six percent from the previous year’s budget. In five years the annual budget would be in balance, and the total federal debt will be on a path to being paid off.
The Magnificent Seven now account for nearly a third of the S&P 500. Tribe
If their AI bets go wrong, the whole market could go with them.
* More U.S. adults believe vaccine science is still open to debate and that vaccine mandates cause harm than believe the science is settled and should not be questioned, according to a new Politico poll. | VFox
On Ruben Gallego, We Told You So
Arizona senator Ruben Gallego was Swalwell’s Capitol Hill roommate and longtime wingman, so some people are reasonably starting to wonder what Gallego knew, when he knew it, and whether he got in on the action. Gallego is either the stupidest man in Washington or, perhaps, not on the up-and-up. The legacy media is now interested in the story and, it turns out, there may have been some signs Gallego isn’t a stand up guy.
Debt Rattle
BIG ruling against Boasberg et al.
NYC mayor Mamdani unveiled his plan to build a massive government-run grocery store
Is that a good location for a government supermarket? Not really. There are five grocery stores within a two-block radius of the proposed building site. Shouldn’t they just build a Costco instead? Probably, but there is already a Costco several blocks away, or 0.7 miles. Google Maps says it’s a 15-minute walk
Trump Reverses Himself, Joins Obama and Biden in Demanding "Clean" Renewal of NSA Domestic Spying Powers
In 2024, Trump urged Congress to “KILL FISA.” With a vote upcoming this week, he now demands its renewal with no limits or safeguards, and he has ample Democratic support.
Email: wkidder42@gmail.com
Text: 1 646 257 2130
Voice: Use WhatsApp +1 646 257 2130
at 1:00 AM