May 18
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y
Oil ticks up while stocks retreat further from records as traders weighed fresh developments in the Middle East and mixed signs that the US and Iran could be nearing a deal. President Trump said he was calling off a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday after leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE urged him to “hold off,” adding that serious negotiations were now underway.
Goldman cuts US recession odds to 25% as Hormuz closure impact stays contained | Forex
The benchmark Treasury yield remained near one-year highs
Markets currently expect the Fed to leave the fed funds rate unchanged through year-end
Debt Rattle
* Trump has said recovering Iran’s highly enriched uranium is “more for public relations” than anything else
* Todd Blanche appears to be a step up from Pam Bondi.
Pro-Israel political action committees have reportedly spent more than 20 million dollars in the Kentucky Republican primary targeting Representative Thomas Massie and making it the most expensive primary race in history. Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert recently made an appearance with Massie, after which Trump called her “weak-minded” and “dumb,” and called for a primary challenger to get her out of office. | Peak Digest
Bill Cassidy’s Demise Signals MAHA’s Rise
The MAHA movement took its first scalp by helping to defeat United States Senator Bill Cassidy in his run for re-election in Louisiana. Cassidy is the senator who held up the confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to serve as Secretary of Health and Human Services, forcing him to commit to giving Cassidy unprecedented say over hiring and policymaking in the agency. Cassidy also firebombed Kennedy’s pick for CDC director
What Did Claude Just Kill?
Then on Monday, May 12, Anthropic doubled down on disrupting legal services. They released more than 20 new MCP connectors linking Claude to the software law firms actually use: Box, Everlaw, DocuSign, Microsoft 365. Plus 12 practice-area-specific plugins covering everything from M&A due diligence to employment handbook drafting.
I Smell A CRASH | MTick
Roughly 6 in 10 Americans in the workforce are in white collar roles. Assuming you can magically create the energy to run these massive data centers (you can't), assuming you can pay for the data centers (find someone to grant the credit for it -- you can't at that scale) and assuming veracity and capacity advance to the point that said 60% of roles are replaced...... what happens?
“Stop Hiring Humans” Billboards Are Appearing In U.S. Cities
The company, Artisan, markets AI agents that handle outbound sales tasks like lead generation, cold emailing, list-building, and prospecting. Their message is blunt: the era of AI employees is here.
Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines
The Real Reason North Korea Fights for Russia | Arm
Reports now estimate North Korea has earned roughly $14 billion through military cooperation tied to the war in Ukraine. North Korea did not enter this war because of friendship with Russia. Yes, the Hermit Kingdom programs its people to hate the West, but they did it for more than the love of the game. It entered because the conflict offered economic survival, military modernization, technological advancement, and direct exposure to modern warfare all at once.
Food Inflation in America by Product: A Sharp Acceleration on Top of Already Very High Prices | Wolf
Ground Beef Soars to $6.90 Per Pound | Mish
KR: Which is 50% more than I pay in Uruguay for freshly-ground, grass feed beef
Affluenza: Materialism or overconsumption in affluent societies, seen as a societal and environmental menace, as in large-scale consumer debt and product waste. \\ A feeling of dissatisfaction, anxiety, etc, caused by the dogged and ongoing pursuit of more.
Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has taken over the market. It claimed more than 80% of global rocket launches last year and has over 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, providing space-based internet connections to businesses and militaries. SpaceX is a top launch provider for NASA and the Pentagon, which is also looking to the company to help develop President Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile-defense shield.
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