July 25
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y BTC CLZ6
S&P is up 0.37% | 13.42
Crude oil is down 3.5% but stil up roughly 7% for the week
Gold is up $18
10Y is 4.683%, lower by 1.7bp
2Y is 4.335%, lower by 2.0bp<
The US dollar index was at 101.3, halting the rally that topped at a one-month high of 101.5 on July 23rd, as a slight pullback in energy prices softened growing bets that the Federal Reserve could deliver a rate hike this month. Still, the index remained only 0.3% away from the 15-month high touched late June.
Reports that Pakistan, with support from China, was seeking to revive negotiations between the US and Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic path to ease tensions. According to reports, Chinese officials are increasingly concerned that attacks on Gulf states and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are hurting their economic interests.
Bahrain, Kuwait struck Iran following missile and drone attacks in sign of widening war: report | NYP
Israeli settlers attack West Bank’s Nablus, shooting leaves six dead | AlJz
Week Ahead: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged, although markets are pricing in roughly a 35% probability of a rate hike. The probability of a September hike currently stands at nearly 80%. Other data: TQ2 GDP data and the income and outlays report, CB consumer confidence, the trade balance, and employment costs
AAA gasoline is up to $4.105 from $3.928 a month ago
10 year Treasury real yields are the highest since 2008
In recession news, US job postings on Indeed fell -3.5% YoY in the week ending July 10th
Why would the FOMC even say they are planning to hike when real yields are already at 2008 crisis levels and jobs by any measure are scarce, especially good ones?
KR: Because Bond Daddies believe the reported BLS inflation rate is too low.
The Empty Escalation Threat
Mearsheimer notes there is no target set in Iran (bridges, power grids, or energy sites) that can compel Tehran to surrender, as Iran views the conflict as an existential fight for survival.
Why Russia’s "Controlled Escalation Management" Is Failing
Proportional responses do not deter an adversary backed by Western industrial logistics; they merely prolong the conflict and guarantee further strikes on Russian soil. To bring the conflict to a decisive conclusion, Russia’s military leadership must abandon the illusion of controlled escalation, take the gloves off, and apply the full weight of its strategic arsenal to paralyze the enemy’s operational ability to wage war.
Ukraine Bafflingly Battles Warehouse Chain as Russia Pulls Plug on Port Odessa | Simpl
Odessa has been completely shut down with no ships any longer able to enter its ports
DSA = Democratic Socialists of America = rich kids | Debt Rattle
* The poor in US are better off than most of the middle classes in every other country
* Cheap AI Models are a Game-Changer. You don’t need your Lamborghini to do groceries..
* Musk: “If successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.”
* AP video made the case for defunding USAID rather than saving it.
Peak Digest
China’s Three North Shelterbelt Program has planted more than 66 billion trees since 1978. Forest coverage increased from around 12% in the early 1980s to more than 24% today. NASA satellite data showed China accounted for roughly 25% of the global increase in leaf area between 2000 and 2017.
Democratic strategist James Carville stated on his podcast that Democrats should stop opposing voter ID requirements, citing Gallup polling showing 84% overall support and 67% among Democrats. He proposed standards similar to those in Louisiana.
Woke white lady to Musk: "Some people loathe you… Do you think what you're doing is helpful for Western democracy?"
Musk: "Maybe some people do loathe me. That's probably true. I don't care. I think a lot more people hate you and the media than you realize."
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