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March 13

S&P   Oil   FX   Gold   Silver  10Y   USM
University of Michigan sentiment (preliminary) for March 55.5 versus 55.0 estimate
JOLTs job openings for January 6.946M vs 6.700M estimate
PCE inflation +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected. Prior was +2.9%
New orders for US-manufactured durable goods were flat month-over-month
Q4 GDP (2nd revision) 0.7% vs 1.4% estimate

S&P is up 51% | 9:00
10Y is lower by 1.8bp to 4.253%
Gold is up 0.77% to $5,119

Dollar Extends Gains by 0.27% as Iran Conflict Shows No Signs of Abating
The unknown risks over the weekend may help keep greenback supported in North America today | Marc
Dollar Index is at highest level since last November | Marc

Oil is down 2,.69% to $92.91

Quote of the day: | Moon
Alireza Tangsiri, Commander of the IRGC Navy: We guarantee the security of any oil tanker, under any flag, that can convince an American destroyer to escort it through the Strait of Hormuz.

Bessent Greenlights Sale Of Russian Oil At Sea To "Promote Stability In Global Energy Markets" | Zero
Russia has taken in roughly €6 billion from fossil fuel exports since 28 February

“The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed.”
In seven words, Iran’s new Leader threw the gauntlet at President Trump belying all expectations that he will opt for continuity in policy. Not only is Trump in no position to decide a timeline for the war but Mojtaba effectively announced the next phase — a war of attrition. “The will of the people is to continue effective defence”, he stated. Conflict turns into prolonged attrition.

Fertilizer: "Oman port closure cuts off last ammonia export route from Middle East" | Clima
Ten Maersk Ships 'Trapped' In Persian Gulf | Zero

"How does the fact that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz change your analysis?" | John
AI Game Thoery Answer: "This is a significant strategic shift. The closure of the Strait changes the game structure fundamentally — moving Iran from a deterrence game to an attrition and coercion game with a very different payoff matrix. . . . In the original analysis, Iran was the threatened party seeking to deter an Israeli nuclear strike. The closure of the Strait transforms Iran into the active coercer — it has already imposed enormous economic costs on the world, and is now in a fundamentally different strategic position."

Trump isn’t going to be able to simply declare victory and walk away | Fedrl

Rate cuts by year-end: 18 bp | Forex
Dropping gasoline papered over big increases in electricity and natural gas. But that’s over | Wolf
AAA gasoline is $3.630 vs $2.940 a month ago and $3.079 a year ago
Why Hasn’t Moody’s Fired Chief Economist Mark Zandi Yet? | I&I

Debt Rattle
Is there a more hypocritical company than Anthropic? - Elon Musk
SpaceX owns every layer needed to be a global cellular carrier and plans to beam direct to your cell phone
Iran has a very serious water issue. Attacking Water in Iran Can Bring Out Nukes - Armstrong
UK Behind Deadly Storm Shadow Missile Attack On Russian City – Kremlin
Ukraine Attacking Russian Gas Pipeline To Stop Deliveries To Europe
56% of Americans Now Suspect COVID-19 “Vaccines” Caused Mass Deaths

The Myth of Fed Independence—and How to Actually Stop the Inflation Machine | David Stockman
The Fed’s 100-year track record unequivocally proves that it is the very essence of an infernal inflation machine. And we are not calling up the ghosts of too much ancient history to make the point, either. Just since the real Keynesian bad guys—Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen and Powell—took the helm, the Fed has reduced the June 1987 dollar’s purchasing power to just 35 cents!


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