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September 29
We are en route to Montevideo to see the ballet and dine out.

Mkts  2Y  10Y  30Y

News

Economic data this week: Sept jobs report, ISM PMIs, personal income and outlays, and PCE
Early NFP estimates suggest hiring slowed to a little less than 110k from 162k
Bloomberg's survey anticipates the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%

Anthropic Lost $42 Billion on $4.6 Billion in Revenues in 2025: Leaked IPO Prospectus | Wolf
A quarter of its revenues came from just two customers. And the company plans to spend $518 billion in the coming years on cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations. So now it needs a lot of AI magic money

Biggest Borrowers & Lenders in the $13.5-Trillion Repo Market | Wolf
How the Hedge Fund “Basis Trade” & Money Market Funds Fit In

Russian Strike Campaign Shifts to Target Ukrainian Telecoms and Data Centers | Simpl
Recall that ex-CIA head Mike Pompeo was given a directorship at KyivStar for unknown reasons, presumably as it gives the CIA a direct control pipeline into Ukraine’s internet and mobile data, allowing the control, blackmail, and surveillance of anyone in the country.

Brazil’s Lula Pledges to Cancel $28 Billion of Debt One Week Before Election | Naked
The government will buy up defaulted debts of up to 10,000 reais (c. $1900 USD) of working-class households, most of it resulting from unpaid credit card bills and personal loans
Brazilians vote Sunday in a nail-biter election | BsAs
Lula widens his first-round lead to five points, but the runoff remains tied | Merco

Debt Rattle

Cleveland Fed sees Sept CPI up 0.50 m/m and 3.57% y/y
Cleveland Fed sees core CPI up 0.20 m/m and 2.39% y/y

Once you understand this, you understand everything

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