October 5
AI That Will Replace the Vast Majority of Human Desk Jobs
The future will deliver staggering AI-driven abundance and mass poverty at the same time, not universal wealth. The value of human cognitive labor in many corporate workflows is going to head toward zero.
And It’s Running In My Data Center. Therefore, Hiring Freezes, Not Mass Firings -- But Still a Job Apocalypse
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
Crude Oil down 0.90% to $90.30 | 12:08
10Y is higher by 5.6bp to 5.339%
Gold is down $8
Dollar index is up 0.28% to 102.22
São Paulo stocks jump 8%
“A communist lefty loses to someone from the right and the markets celebrate with big gains" | Milei
Political woes weighed on the euro -- down to $1.1208, near 17-month low | Marc
Spain Joins The Party: Snap Election Adds Madrid To Europe's "Red October" Bond Crisis | Zero
News
ISM PMI report at 54.9 showed that services-sector activity continued to expand
Saudi Arabia claims '100 warplanes' bombing Yemen as civilian casualties mount | Cradle
Two more tankers struck near Strait of Hormuz, third threatened by IRGC | Iran
Yemen says they have taken control of Mocha city after battling Houthi fighters | AlZaz
News
Bolsonaro pulled off an unexpected 47% to 45% first-place finish
Other right-wing candidates collectively garnered 5%
Bolsonaro is an overwhelming favourite to win Oct 25 run-off | BsAs
Putin Finally Takes Gloves Off? | Simpl
De-Bridgification of Kiev in Progress as North Bridge Now Hit by Drone. Ukrainian authorities have already announced that a series of pontoon river crossings will be erected as a contingency.
Why Might Putin Finally Decide To Bring Ukraine To Its Knees After Nearly Five Years? | Kory
Putin is motivated at least in part to reach big-ticket resource deals with the US. This imperative, which could revolutionize the global economic architecture and deliver more prosperity to his people, contextualizes the New York Times’ report about him planning to bring Ukraine to its knees.
Chance of a Fed hike is slightly less than 20%.
The Jobs Report Reveals Federal Reserve Election Interference | Zero
There is no demand-side inflation for a rate hike to cure, and NOTHING in Friday's report offers a reason to tighten again in October.
The Credit Markets Are Signaling the Fed Likely Made a Policy Error 2 Weeks Ago | Ed Dowd
Hiking into that mix treats a supply shock problem as a classic overheating problem, and that the Fed would likely have to reverse course down the line. Well last week, the second week after the rate hike decision, we have indications that the credit markets are giving them quick feedback that they made a policy error. I was even shocked at the speed of these developments.
The recent job report was very weak. | QTR
The Fed is keeping inflation front and center, but they need to be careful. The labor market has been weak for a long time now and if things get worse as the Fed continues to raise rates, they may be forced to lower very quickly. This would be a big credibility hit for the Fed.
Cleveland Fed sees Sept CPI up 0.53 m/m and 3.60% y/y
Cleveland Fed sees OCTOBER up 0.22 m/m and 3.58% y/y
AAA: Gasoline drops to $4.369 vs $4.477 a week ago
AAA: Diesel down to $6.320 vs $6.453 a week ago
Debt Rattle
Trump Taps Intelligence Chief Jay Clayton As AI Czar
Trump rebranded AI as “super intelligence” at the UN General Assembly
Bessent has become Trump’s Sunday talk show man
Around 400 of France’s 3,700 secondary schools were closed on Friday
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