October 28
Mkts Brent 10Y 30Y
S&P is up 0.03% | close
Gold is $7 $to 4,067
10Y is 5.020%, higher by 1.7bp
News
Rates left unchanged,but two policymakers voted for a 25bps rate hike
2 Dissents Signal Less Hawkish 'Family Fight' | Zero
Hiking again would be compounding the same error. | Ed Dowd
I am expecting a very Hawkish press briefing.
Markets are already pricing an 80% chance of a rate hike in December | Forex
The focus will be more on the 2027 outlook. Traders see roughly two more rate hikes next year, with the first fully priced move in April. There are 19 members of the Federal Open Market Committee. But only 12 vote.
Netanyahu Holds On After Majority Loss, Hep-B Vaccine Trial Scrapped | Peak
With 70.7% of votes counted, Israeli media forecast Netanyahu’s right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox bloc at 54 Knesset seats against 47 for Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition, with Arab-list parties on 19. His bloc lost its majority, but opponents would need Arab-party backing to replace him, which many have ruled out, leaving him as caretaker. Netanyahu called for a right-wing government and action against Iran with President Trump. Eisenkot said Netanyahu lacked a mandate.
The ‘Israeli apartheid’ libel has completely fallen apart
The success of the Arab parties in yesterday’s election shatters the lies of the Israelophobes.
Arab parties eye ‘kingmaker’ role as Israeli vote count continues | AlJaz
Israeli shekel depreciated by more than 1%.
Russia has won the war. Trump’s belated peace efforts are largely irrelevant
-Doug Macgregor
Insta
Flávio Bolsonaro and family fled Brazil despite a court ban and the US will grant him a visa
They arrived in Miami on Tuesday night. It's not just Flavio Bolsonaro who fled Brazil to escape the tyrannical persecution of Alexandre de Moraes and the pro-Lula wing of the Supreme Court. There are dozens of Brazilian exiles who have done the same: dissident journalists, activists, bloggers, and politicians who all fled to avoid certain prison for political opposition.
Lula's Totalitarian Crackdown Threatens Political Crisis In Brazil | Zero
But Bolsonaro's party dominates the Senate, and Lula's move to go after his opponent immediately after the election suggests the political crisis is far from over; it's just beginning.
Elections Worldwide are at Their Most Divisive in Centuries | Arm
While most of the world looks to the upcoming US Midterm elections, the polarization is worldwide. In France the stark difference between Macron and Le Pen is just one example. We have the same in Germany between Merz and the AfD. Today the election in Israel is mo different. It is so polarized that it may take even months to form a new government. Opinion polls suggest that Mr. Netanyahu’s allies and rivals are roughly tied. This is the polarization we are seeing everywhere.
U.S. Midterm Consequence Preview | Moon
Trump will respond by firing some of his people. To regain some standing, he may try to shut down the two wars – Iran and Ukraine – he is directly involved in. The first pawn to go will be Secretary of Defense Hegseth. Nobody will lose a tear for him. The two people behind the war in Iran are Trump’s chief of staff (and Netanyahoo confident) Susie Wiles, as well as Trump’s Mossad handler and son in law Jared Kushner. To end the war in Ukraine will necessitate to get rid of CIA Director Ratcliffe. It is the CIA, not the Pentagon, which is running the show in Kiev. There is a significant chance that Trump will not survive the next two years.
The Post-War European Security Architecture Is Beginning To Take Shape | Kory
Provided that the latest trends remain on track, then the countries between Germany and Russia that are collectively known as the Intermarium will play the most significant role in this respect. The center of military-security gravity would then become the Baltic over which the Swedish-led Viking Bloc and Poland will exert joint military patronage over its eastern reaches (Finland and the Baltic States). The US and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) will “Lead From Behind” by optimizing the “military Schengen”.
Cleveland Fed CPI Forecasts for October
Headline: 0.24 m/m and 3.74% y/y
Core: 0.21 m/m and 2.48% y/y
AAA gasoline on 10/28: $4.247 and is down $0.23 from $4.477 a month ago
CPI is calculated using pricess the first 21 days of a month
Debt Rattle
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