May 19
The Bond Market Is About To Break Washington
Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began. | QTR
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y TW$
S&P is down 0.60% | 15:44
10Y is 4.666%, higher by 7.3bp
Oil is up 0.09%
Gold is down 1.73%
U.S. Seized Iran-Linked Oil Tanker in the Indian Ocean | WSJ
NATO now says it could deploy military assets to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Trump acknowledged on Tuesday that Iran retains the ability to launch retaliatory strikes. | Sput
Russian ruble has become the world’s best-performing currency against the US dollar in Q2 | RT
30 Year Yield Soars To 19 Year High After Two Huge Treasury Block Sales | Zero
Bond yields continued to move sharply higher today, driven in large part by the aggressive repricing in the oil strip as markets (finally) price in a lengthy disruption to Hormuz traffic which has pushed year-end prices higher by about $12 in the past month.
Dec 2026 Oil
Long-term Treasury yields surged with 10Y at its highest in 16 months on robust growth
Pending Home Sales Rise For 3rd Straight Month In April
ADP employers added an average of 42,250 jobs per week, up from 33,000 in the prior week
AI is too expensive.
AI is, as it stands, not economically viable for anybody involved other than the construction firms, NVIDIA, and the surrounding hardware companies benefitting from the irrational exuberance of a data center buildout that doesn’t appear to be happening at the speed we believed.
The President Who Cries War, then Peace, Then War | John
Since February 28, 2026, Donald Trump has released 11 statements suggesting the war with Iran was over or that a negotiated deal is close, only it turns out to be a hoax. Aesop’s fable about the Boy Who Cried Wolf teaches the moral that repeated lying erodes trust, so that when a real crisis occurs, people won’t believe the liar.
Has the Fed a better dollar index? Answer: Yes. They do.
China’s share is at 11%. Mexico’s at 14%. Goods and services trade change. At least this one is rebalanced every year against actual trade flows.
Putin's Incentive to Escalate | Mearsheimer
It is clear that Ukraine, with help from Europe, is ramping up its drone attacks on Moscow and promising even bigger attacks in the future. The Russians, however, have made it clear that the present situation — not to mention the promised future — is untenable and they will escalate if necessary to create deterrence. Given there is virtually no bargaining space between the two sides and there are clear hints from the Russian side that attacking NATO states is a possibility, we should be deeply worried.
Debt Rattle
A nine-person federal jury has sided with OpenAI, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Microsoft, determining that Elon Musk filed his high-profile lawsuit too late under the statute of limitations. The verdict effectively ends Musk’s claims that OpenAI abandoned its founding nonprofit mission to benefit humanity. The jury unanimously concluded that Musk knew or should have known about OpenAI’s shift toward a for-profit model and major Microsoft partnerships years earlier – potentially as far back as 2019–2021, making his August 2024 filing untimely. U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in turn accepted the advisory jury’s finding on this threshold issue and dismissed the case.
No Wonder Men Are Opting Out
Marriage was the mechanism by which society harnessed male productivity. Remove the shame and the yoke comes off.
China wants to be the world’s biotech superpower.
But to understand how it got here, it’s best to start with its crown jewel: the WuXi companies.
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services | Chart
Berkshire Trolls The AI Bubble By Buying Macy's | QTR
Berkshire has spent decades avoiding one of the central mistakes in modern investing: confusing a compelling narrative with a compelling investment. A transformative future does not automatically justify any price.
Berkshire likely was attracted to Macy’s because it combined several characteristics long associated with Buffett-style investing: a deeply discounted valuation trading near book value and at a low forward earnings multiple, substantial underlying real estate assets including the flagship Herald Square property, strong cash generation and shareholder returns through free cash flow and dividends, and a credible turnaround strategy focused on closing weaker stores while reinvesting in stronger locations.
Mapped: America’s Best Companies by Home State
Is the Pope Black? | Sail
The NYT writer uses six times the fake new definition of “enslave,” “enslaved,” or “enslaving:” According to Merriam-Webster, the definition of the verb “enslave” is “to force into or as if into slavery” — i.e., to reduce a free person to the condition of a slave. In reality, her ancestor didn’t go to Africa, risk malaria, and enslave free Africans. Virtually every slave in New Orleans had personally been or had ancestors who had been enslaved in Africa, almost always by other black Africans. It’s all very embarrassing African Americans. It would be much more convenient if whites had roved around the African bush enslaving blacks, like in Roots.
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