Kidder Reports

October 2

Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
10Y yield is higher by 4.4bp to 5.286% | 15:27
S&P is up 0.71%
Gold is down $31
Dollar index is down 0.21% to 101.88

Crude oil fell to $91.18 after the Group of Seven agreed to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves to ease fuel costs.

Next week: FOMC minutes, ISM Services PMI, and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment

News
In Big Warning to the Fed, Bond Yields Rise Despite Weak Jobs | Mish
Had it not been for that 0.2% uptick in participation, Unemployment would have come in at 3.951%. Bottom line: this report wasn't really weaker than expected apart from wage growth. The market just hasn't figured out how to forecast NFP in a low-growth labor force | Mort

A weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted investors to pare bets on further Fed tightening. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29K last month, well below expectations for a 90K gain, while employment figures for the previous two months were also revised lower. Fed rate expectations eased following the data, with markets now pricing in less than one additional rate hike for the remainder of 2026.

How the Fed’s Printing Press Created Today’s Wall Street Casino | David Stockman
If you don’t think we’ve had total monetary regime failure since Greenspan and his heirs and assigns took over the Fed in Q3 1987, then riddle us this: what was so defective about an economy perking along at 5% economic growth as of 1985-1987 that required a drastic and permanent acceleration of the Fed’s printing presses?

Debt Rattle

Cleveland Fed sees Sept CPI up 0.53 m/m and 3.60% y/y
Cleveland Fed sees OCTOBER up 0.22 m/m and 3.58% y/y

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