May 14
10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final hour of trading. Just as frustrating as the weakness is the fact that there's no discrete scapegoat in the news or data. That said, oil prices were also moving higher during the bond sell-off
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y
S&P is up 0.77% | 2:32
WTI crude is $101.21, up $0.18
Dollar index is up 0.31%. The upside breakout we have been anticipating seems to be at hand | Marc
Initial jobless claims 211K vs 205K expected
Retail sales increased 0.5%, following a downwardly revised 1.6% gain in March
Despite Record Low Sentiment, US Retail Sales See Strongest Annual Gain In 8 Months | Zero
Retail Sales Up 0.5 Percent in April but Inflation-Adjusted Sales Decline | Mish
Import prices rose 1.9%, the most since March 2022 and driven by jump in fuel and lubricant prices
Trump, Xi agree Strait of Hormuz must stay open and Iran can’t have nukes: White House | NYP
Russia's Oil Revenues Surge $6.3 Billion as High Prices Offset Production Losses | OilPx
Tulsi Gabbard is finalizing plan to assume responsibility for CIA-backed venture capital firm | Clima
Changes at the Fed: The Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Warsh’s has a preference for the Trimmed PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures, Price Index), as a measure bureaucrats use to estimate inflation, rather than Core PCE. The Trimmed PCE removes any component, regardless of its category, that has had extremely unusual price behavior in each month. In short, it supposedly provides a smoother and more stable view of how prices are evolving, removing the most volatile components to see the real direction of inflation.
Today the Trimmed PCE comes in at just 2.4 percent annually
Debt Rattle
* The 27 who conspired to fabricate fraudulent intelligence assessment that launched Russia Collusion Hoax
* No, The CIA Did Not Raid DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s Office (CTH)
Inflation Is Coming Back — And These Assets Are About to Explode Higher
The largest returns from investing coming from one of two things:
1) Compounding (meaning holding for prolonged periods, e.g. years if not decades).
2) Catching MAJOR shifts in the financial system.
The yield on the 2-Year Treasury is breaking out to the upside is a major warning that higher inflation is coming.
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at 1:00 AM