July 28
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y BTC CLZ6
S&P is up 0.30% | 2:54
Oil is down 4.33% to $79.04
Gold is down $54
2Y is 4.289%, lower by 3.3bp
10Y yield is lower by 4.9bp to 4.609%
Dollar index is down 0.12%
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy rates unchanged tomorrow, but rate futures continued reflect the consensus of a hike this year.
The Fed is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
All twelve estimates in the report indicate that the Fed should raise its policy rate at the upcoming meeting.
Richmond Fed Services Index Remains Flat in July
Trade balance for June -$101.5 billion vs -105.8 billion prior. In the first half of 2026, the cumulative goods trade deficit narrowed to $535.5 billion from $716.6 billion in the same period a year earlier.
AAA gasoline dips to $4.099 from $4.110 yesterday
Trump Approval Index sinks to 42% | Ras
As of last week, Google’s century bond has already lost 10% of its value. | Ed Zitron
Let’s give you a (hypothetical) example. US Treasuries are 5%, and a hyperscaler raises $10 billion in bonds at 6.5%. The “spread” here would be 150bps — which suggests that investors think they’re mostly safe. In general, 150-300bps is worth keeping an eye on, 300bps+ is worrying, and 700bps+ is a company that the market is concerned about repayment.
With Birthright Citizenship Upheld, Now What? A new playbook to curb its abuses
Congress rarely passes laws that require 60 votes in the Senate, the threshold for all legislation except spending bills. The Senate could eliminate the filibuster for this purpose. But what goes around comes around, and Republicans could soon see Democrats use it for D.C. statehood, immigration amnesty, and other left-wing dreams.
The 5% Line in the Sand | Doug Casey
10Y Yield: Every 1 basis point increase in the government’s average borrowing cost adds roughly $3.9 billion in annual interest expense. So a 68 bps rise is not trivial—it translates to nearly $265 billion in additional yearly interest costs, materially widening a budget deficit that was already around $1.8 trillion.
Today’s Digest
US draft simulations, Graham’s Iran remarks, Abqaiq refinery attacks, Russia fuel crisis, Kazakhstan oil, Trump’s Iran pause, Turkey’s shift, glyphosate, anti-progesterone in water, resistant starch, and Canada’s hate laws.
Debt Rattle
Jury Duty For Illegal Aliens
Do you want your court case decided by people who have no right to be in the country?
Note the disgrace of the medical establishment that went along with Covid policy | Kunst
The doctors of America ganged up against the patients of America and broke the Hippocratic oath that says first, do no harm. The doctors went along with the fake mRNA vaccines long after it was evident that the shots didn’t work to prevent the disease and, in fact, induced widespread serious injuries, often fatal.
Iran MP warns Kyiv that military response ‘certain to follow’ after ship attack | AlJz
Saudi Aramco has closed the Jazan oil refinery after an attack
Oman pushes plan to let Iran collect ‘voluntary’ fees to pass through Strait of Hormuz | NYP
Trump rebukes Netanyahu ahead of Oval Office meeting
Iran executions spark protests as threat of bigger US war looms | Iran
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