October 4
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
Next week: FOMC minutes, ISM Services PMI, and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment
News
Yemen leader announces major military offensive against Houthis | AlJaz
AI may soon invent languages humans would struggle to understand | Peak
and that one OpenAI chain of thought already used language that was not English and not fully readable. He said there is not yet a scientific way to detect or stop it. Other tests have seen agents compress speech into slang evaluators could barely parse, according to reports.
Golden Crumbs | Tribe
The Eighties — The Bond Market, 1978–1991
Claude gave this a really florid touch.
Jane Doe and the Cornell 7
Democrats could not care less what happens to Jane Doe
Kiev In Panic as Russian Drones Begin Severing Main-Bridge Cables | Simpl
Traffic jams paralyzed the city after the bridge was shut down to car traffic. Russia is said to be using a new line of Geran-4 drones with special “wire-cutting” cumulative charges.
Russian drones and missiles are hitting Ukraine’s capital around the clock | WSJ
Russian strikes will be intensified after Zelenskyy's threats. The Defense Ministry stated that Ukrainians should thank the "illegitimate" one for everything that is happening in Ukraine. | Top
German Chancellor Merz is in Kyiv on a surprise visit | Report
Attacks were not expected. Previously, Russia did not attack the Ukrainian capital if high-ranking foreign guests were visiting. Apparently, either the narrative has changed, or Moscow doesn't respect Merz.
Russia to Use Entire Arsenal if Kaliningrad Region Threatened - Kremlin | Sput
Doug Noland CBB Weekly
Market probability for an October rate hike dropped to 47% on Tuesday (from Monday’s 70%), before ending the week down to 23%. Some dovish Fed comments (Williams, Jefferson, Bowman) didn’t hurt. But mostly, the rates market responded to heightened odds of market instability grounding the FOMC’s hawkish contingent.
In Big Warning to the Fed, Bond Yields Rise Despite Weak Jobs | Mish
Private Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs | Wolf
How the Fed’s Printing Press Created Today’s Wall Street Casino | David Stockman
If you don’t think we’ve had total monetary regime failure since Greenspan and his heirs and assigns took over the Fed in Q3 1987, then riddle us this: what was so defective about an economy perking along at 5% economic growth as of 1985-1987 that required a drastic and permanent acceleration of the Fed’s printing presses?
Debt Rattle
The Optimus factory construction at Giga Texas is progressing rapidly. It'll be a massive 7 million sq ft facility with a targeted capacity of 10 million Optimus per year. Initial production is planned to begin in 2027
Powered Exoskeletons Are Moving From Sci Fi Into Warehouses, Rescue Missions, and the Battlefield | ZME
Week in Pictures
Cleveland Fed sees Sept CPI up 0.53 m/m and 3.60% y/y
Cleveland Fed sees OCTOBER up 0.22 m/m and 3.58% y/y
AAA: Gasoline drops to $4.369 vs $4.480 a week ago
AAAL Diesel down to $6.343 vs $6.470 a week ago
Adventitious is a formal word that most often describes something that comes from an outside source, and is neither inherent or innate.
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