September 4
News
Labor Day Weekend. Week Ahead
CPI report next Friday (Sept 11) remains the key risk event
The Fed rate decision as entirely dependent on the CPI report. If that shows continuing progress in inflation coming down, then the Fed holding. | Zero
Other key data includes Michigan consumer sentiment and existing home sales.
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
S&P is down 0.46% | 15:21
Oil is up $0.13 to $91.14
Gold is down $46 as rate hikes more likely
2Y is higher by 3.4bp to 4.385%
10Y yield is 4.787%, higher by 1.4bp. Rates Only Slightly Higher Despite Strong Jobs Report
AlJaz
Trump says US may attack Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain ‘very soon’
News
Trump Threatens to Cancel Trade with World Unless the Fed Cuts Rates | Mish
August non-farm payrolls +162K vs +56K expected
Two-month net revision: up 55,000
Unemployment rate: $.1% unchanged
Possibly the best report so far all year
Wages Growth Matches Forecasts at 0.3%
Participation rate 61.6% vs 61.4% prior
U6 underemployment rate 7.7% vs 7.9% prior
The unadjusted household numbers tell a somewhat different story | MTick
A net loss of 133,000 jobs and 320,000 people deciding to couch surf. Neither of those are good, but the employment:population ratio remained dead-even at 59.1%. The 12-month population adjusted rate is still in the ditch at -2.035 million, an improvement from last month but let's be real -- losing 2 million on a population adjusted basis over a year is by no stretch of the imagination "good."
News
Diesel hits a new high: $5.850 vs $5.371 a month ago
Russia's Oil Revenue Sinks As Urals Falls To $59
Eurozone retail sales fall in July as consumer spending softens
Diesel crunch, hot ISM data point to entrenched inflation risk | Forex
Chicago rice futures are on track for their largest annual gain since 2003 | Zero
Wauck
Iran is not about to allow a face saving TACO. They will force Trump to either escalate into deepening disaster or accept total humiliation. Also, I’ve obtained a summary of the WSJ report on Trump’s contemplated victory declaration—Trump’s deliberations are real and portray an administration in disarray.
Simpl
There continue to be major signs of internal turmoil in Ukraine. When two of Ukraine’s top intelligence agencies resort to open exchanges of gunfire, it becomes a palpable sign of things to come as the country gradually descends into the abyss. As Ukraine descends, Europe goes full force in ginning up more hybrid provocations against Russia in an attempt to unbalance and distract Russia from any oblique angle that it can.
CTH
The number of foreign-born persons is now at the Jan 2024 level and declining removed. The total foreign-born population declined 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026. This follows an 8.3 million increase in the prior four years during the post-Covid border surge.
Iran
South Korea weighs Hormuz military role as US ties Iran talks to shipping attacks
Debt Rattle
Bessent on Iran: One of the best allies Iran has is the media.
Russian state media have been deliberately using toponym ‘Britain’ instead of ‘Great Britain’
Congressional Democrats blocked an effort to introduce a constitutional amendment to bar the Court’s expansion
Why Cybercab is always spotless, fresh… and never smells like a typical Uber?
Insta
Life in Rural America (where Republican Trump voters live and govern), is clean, safe, and racially tolerant. On the other hand, most of the places in America where life is dirty, polluted, dangerous, and violent, where people are plagued with racial hate and race riots, are cities populated by and governed by Democrats. What’s more, if you remove Democrat-run cities from our national statistics, you will find an overall America that is overwhelmingly peaceful, safe, clean, and racially tolerant.
15 colleges now cost $100K+ per year — and almost none of them are worth it
Trump Admin Took 28,000 Unqualified Truckers Off U.S. Roads.
Tesla has officially started offering Cybercab rides to the public.
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