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March 10

Seven letters accomplished what the entire Iranian navy could not.
Identical cancellation notices for war-risk coverage across the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and Iranian territorial waters. They withdrew because their London treaty reinsurers, confronting unlimited tail exposure in an active combat zone, could no longer satisfy the 99.5% Value-at-Risk capital charges mandated by the European Union’s Solvency II directive. The reinsurers pulled capacity.

This is not a geopolitical risk overlay. This is the first live demonstration of Actuarial Warfare: a paradigm in which private reinsurance desks, operating under regulatory capital constraints, exercise de facto sovereignty over the planet’s most critical maritime chokepoint more durably than navies, missiles, or executive orders.

S&P   Oil   FX   Gold   Silver  10Y   USM
Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait

S&P is down 0.21% | 4:31
Oil is down 8.55% to $86.67
Gold is up 1.06 to $5,195%
10Y is higher by 6.0bp to 4.160%

ADP Signals Best Job Gains In Almost 4 Months | Zero
For the four weeks ending February 21, 2026, ADP reports that private employers added an average of 15,500 jobs a week.

American IT giants are fleeing Persian Gulf data centers. | TopWar
Iran Switches to 'Large Caliber' heavy warheads weighing at least one ton | Reportr

I'd be cautious here with regard to the belief that "its all over and we're all fine". I do remember a certain former President standing on an aircraft carrier and announcing "mission accomplished." | MTick

Why Iran may not be Real Threat to US Carriers | Simpl
The largest misconception most laymen make is that anti-ship operations consist of simply firing some kind of missile into the ocean and that missile somehow magically finding the aircraft carrier on its own and striking it, despite the fact that the target carrier is potentially hundreds of miles away over the horizon—which is the key point.

Debt Rattle
The Iranians are picking us apart, piece by piece by piece. -Scott Ritter
I think we're going to be swept completely out of the Persian Gulf -Macgregor

Growing Doubts by US and Israel About the War with Iran | John
In private, however, Trump’s advisers have urged him privately to look for an exit plan from the Iran war amid spiking oil prices and concerns that a prolonged conflict could spark political backlash, according to WSJ. Officials close to the president are urging him to start outlining an exit strategy from the conflict while portraying the military campaign as having largely achieved its goals.

The Constitution Means Less Than Nothing | Arm
I support Anthtopic. The retaliation against their firm is outrageous. The Constitution means nothing in a court of law even when they let the press in. It means even less behind closed doors. Prosecutors threaten people’s families just to win and will knowing even execute innocent people and hide the evidence that shows what they have done.

Wednesday: Consensus for core CPI m/m is 0.2% versus 0.3% previously. | Forex
Headline CPI m/m is expected to rise 0.3% compared with 0.2% prior, while CPI y/y is forecast to increase from 2.4% to 2.5%. Some analysts expect U.S. inflation to print above expectations, which could further reduce market bets on near-term rate cuts.


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