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September 21

Mkts  2Y  10Y  30Y
S&P is up 1.41% | 13:55
10Y is 4.972%, lower by 2.5bp
Gold is down $39
Oil is down $4.79 to $95.50

2Y yield is 4.761%, higher by 0.9bp and higher by 56bp since Warsh’s speech.
It’s only 22bp below 10Y yield.

News
Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to -0.04 from an upwardly revised +0.08
Data: PMI, durable goods and meeting between Trump and Xi (Thursday)

Iran military ‘fully ready’ for new US attack after latest Trump threat | AlJaz
Iran will change war’s geography, weapons if attacked again | Press
US says Iranian airlines face global shutdown from Sept. 23 | Iran

Chart seven of the world’s most important naval checkpoints
Behold the results of less than 18 months of transformative ‘diplomacy.’

Debt Rattle
Zelenskyy Brags About NATO Missiles Being Used to Attack Russia
This is not going to end well unless someone steps on Zelenskyy to bring him back to reality.
Trump Pushes Zelensky To Halt Russia Refinery Attacks Amid High Diesel | Zero

In one stroke, the agreement solves the U.S.’s two biggest Greenland problems: | Insta
The deal stands even if Greenland ever becomes independent, and it reportedly gives U.S. veto power over Chinese or Russian involvement in the island’s affairs. He got the bases, the ban, the veto, and forever, and the Times marked him down for not also getting the gift shop or inheriting Greenland’s welfare state.

But in the very same story, the Times also reported that the announced terms include: a larger U.S. military presence and a build permit; a ban on non-NATO bases or military presence; full flyover rights; continued effect after a future Greenlandic independence; and a U.S. approval right over sensitive Russian or Chinese investments.

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