Kidder Reports

April 8

Israel Was Informed Late About Cease-Fire Deal and Wasn’t Happy | WSJ at 12:13pm ET
Iran warns that its participation in Friday's Islamabad talks hinges on a cease‑fire in Lebanon
Trump says Lebanon not included in US-Iran ceasefire amid Israeli assault | AlJz

Oil tankers passing through Hormuz have been stopped after Israel allegedly breached ceasefire
Iran's IRGC says it downed Hermes 900 drone over Fars province | MEE

Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Nations Helping Iran | PW
Market is pricing in 10.5 bps of easing this year, up from virtually nil last week | Forex

The war isn’t over. Israel will do its best to sabotage the ceasefire by all means. | Moon
If Trump really wants to stop losing the war he had started on advice of Netanyahoo (archived) he will have to throw him under a bus. The Secretary for War Crimes Pete Hegseth and others who had urged for the war will be made scapegoats for this defeat.

NYT: Trump Launched Iran War After Being Briefed by Netanyahu at the White House | Anti-War
The Israeli leader insisted Iran was ripe for regime change

A Pause To Negotiate A Deal? Some Caveats | Zero
Why the much-ballyhooed Iran ceasefire is much less than it seems to be | Naked

S&P Oil FX Gold BTC 10Y

S&P is up 2.71%.| 8:41
Today's Rip Higher Is Not A Real Stock Rally | QTR
We went from ‘the end of civilizations’ to ‘everything is perfectly fine’ in 8 hours.

WTI oil plunged more than 17% to near $93
Gold is up nearly 2% to $4,796, highest level since March 19
Dollar index fell 1.23% to 98.60
10Y is lower in yield by 6.1bp

What’s Really in the Deal? | Mish
The current two-week pause is framed as a temporary de-escalation to enable diplomacy, not a full resolution. Both sides have a history of mistrust, with Iran stressing it will only accept terms meeting its conditions. Short answer. Iran’s civilization will not die tonight. Thankfully. Otherwise, it’s another pack of Trump lies.

The world will not end because of ‘workarounds’ and ‘negotiations’
ensuring that just enough oil reaches the world to prevent collapse. Instead of Armageddon we’ll just get endless bursts of inflation while the ‘war’ gets ‘resolved.’ Alas this ‘war’ will continue to simmer just like the UKEY war simmers… on ... and on ... and on...and on… and on (and Putin refuses to destroy Ukraine’s power plants cuz?).

The ceasefire is a temporary face-saver for Trump. | PCR
John Helmer Explains that Trump Surrendered, Not Iran. Trump announced that as a favour to his Pakistan ally, Asim Munir, “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. As long as the Zionist agenda of Greater Israel exists, Iran will remain an Israeli-American target.

Trump seems to be jumping the gun on the agreement with whoever is running the show in Iran. He appears to be deeply invested in an agreement that has yet to be negotiated. “We have determined that Iran has gone through what will be a very productive ‘Regime Change!'” Maybe it all depends on what you mean by “regime change.” We shall see. | PL

Iran has essentially declared victory and stated that upcoming talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday do not guarantee an end to the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given supportive lip service to the US decision but stated that Lebanon is excluded from the two-week ceasefire. | Zero

Trump delayed his threat to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks in what he described as a “double-sided ceasefire,” contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis for negotiations,” with the two-week window allowing the potential agreement to be finalized and implemented.

WSJ: Iran signaled its intention to continue asserting influence over Hormuz and some ships at anchor near the strait received radio messages from Iranian forces saying they needed Iran’s permission to cross the strait. Iran's foreign minister said that passage through the strait will be possible “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” Trump said the U.S. “will be helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait.

Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran, but was continuing operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Gulf countries including Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates reported continued missile and drone attacks despite the cease-fire announcement.

FOMC meeting minutes report today
AAA gasoline up to $4.164 from $3.450 a month ago
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Jumped. That’s How it Started in 2020 when Broad Inflation Took Off | Wolf

Debt Rattle
Democrats are even more unpopular than Republicans
Without Customs and Border Protection officers, there can be no customs clearance and sactuary cities can’t accept international arrivals
ulian Assange is reportedly preparing to BRING BACK WIKILEAKS

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