September 1
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
S&P is down 0.454. Risk-off | 7:05
Risk-off on growing concerns that tight financial conditions will hamper economic growth
The global bond selloff is rolling on into September
Oil is up 2.60% to $87.98. Brent above $92
Gold is down $64
10Y yield is 4.790%, higher by 3.4bp, highest level since January 2025
News
Euro area inflation climbs to 3.3% on higher energy prices
Producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq are still managing to ship barrels
Markets are currently pricing a 66% probability of a rate hike later this month
Attention now turns to the ADP employment report due on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday
AAA gasoline is $4.095 vs $4.097 a week ago
Diesel is $5.633 vs $5.620 a week ago
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
Rates are still low relative to reasonable expectations of inflation and growth. Incomes and spending are currently rising about 7% a year in dollar terms. There is so far zero evidence of any looming slowdown in the U.S. data. If anything, the numbers on everything from retail spending to the length of the manufacturing workweek suggest that the economy has been accelerating (slightly) relative to where it was in 2024-25.
Debt Rattle
Some courts are willing allies of partisan groups in seeking to gum up the system.
This is why the “shadow docket” has become more prominent.
“Talwani is viewed by many as a one-stop-shop judge for forum-shopping.”
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