April 3
10Y is 4.320%, higher in yield by 0.9bp | 13:52
The yield rose slightly in a shortened session afer the economy added 178K jobs in March, nearly three times market forecasts of 60K. Two-month net revision was -7K
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% and wage growth slowed.
It appears the modest labor market recession of 2025 is officially over | Zero
The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged this year
Next week attention will turn to the FOMC minutes, CPI data, the ISM Services PMI, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, and the PCE report. The conflict with Iran will remain in focus as it enters its sixth week. Traders will continue to assess prospects for de-escalation, as well as any concrete developments toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Gains were once again driven by the healthcare sector
Federal government employment continued to decline.
Overall, payroll employment has shown little net change over the past 12 months.
The bottom-line number, which is the 12 month population-adjusted employment figure, declined somewhat (to -2.483 million) from last month, continuing the strong warning that has been present since 2023. This is deeply alarming for the simple reason that without real growth, you do not have a stable and factually-growing economic base | MTick
S&P Oil FX Gold BTC 10Y
June Brent is $109.03, up about 8% | 9:04
May Oil is $112.06, up almost 12%
S&P is down 0.20%
Gold is down 2.26%
The strongest gain since December 2024
A 3 sigma beat to the median forecast | Zero
The number of unemployed decreased by 332,000 to 7.239 million
Total employment fell by 64,000 to 162.85 million
The participation rate down 0.1 percentage point to 61.9%.
Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.7% expected
Average weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expected
Change in private payrolls +186K vs +70K expected
Change in manufacturing payrolls +15K vs -5K expected
Government payrolls -8K vs -6K in February
Good Friday is not a federal holiday. Shortened session for Treasuries
Closed all day: NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities, plus most global exchanges
The 6-month average trade deficit in goods fell to $80 billion | Wolf
Tariffs Are Doing their Job. The tariffs are supposed to accomplish two goals: 1. Reduce the massive and unsustainable trade deficit in goods driven by the tsunami of imports; 2. Raise taxes from companies that continue to import anyway.
Debt Rattle
Artemis II and the ‘Waste of Space’. It’s a $60 billion space stunt.
Biden sent FEMA money meant for Americans in distress to luxury hotels for illegal immigrants in NYC
Elon Musk: "Tesla isn't building a phone. They're leapfrogging the entire concept.
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at 1:00 AM