October 31
Halloween numbers show that “Boo!” is big business in America. Consumer spending on the holiday is expected to reach about $13.5 billion this year.
News
Qatar Signals Talks 'Breakthrough' | Zero
American delegation soon expected to join Iranian officials for direct talks in Doha.
A coup is underway in Poland by pro-EU forces against right wing nationalists | Naked
Khamenei orders immediate response to any threat without geographical limit | AlJaz
Iran has moved beyond regional war doctrine | Iran
Here’s the part the headlines missed. Nine of 11 sectors rose this week | RIA
OpenAI has raised less than half of the $30 billion it had initially targeted
OpenAI slashes funding target by $10 billion amid tech rout, FT reports | Clima
Newly purchased I bonds will pay 5.51% annual interest from Nov. 1 through April 30
The new rate includes a variable portion of 4.08% based on inflation data, and a fixed portion of 1.40%
Doug Noland Weekly
Friday’s risk off session was worth less than a basis point reduction for “safe haven” 10-year yields
The Fed is ill-prepared for what is unfolding in global markets
Tech stocks are certainly interesting, but the critical action is with technology Credit
Fitch says private credit defaults have reached an all-time high | QTR
News
Next week monthly jobs report will take center stage
Nonfarm payrolls – Forecast: +63,000 – Previous: +29,000
Unemployment rate – Forecast: 4.2% – Previous: 4.2%
Average hourly earnings, monthly – Forecast: 0.3% – Previous: 0.1%
Other data: ISM PMIs, JOLTS job openings, factory orders, trade data and Michigan consumer sentiment
Midterm elections on Tuesday
Voters want the next Congress to be a check on Trump’s power during his final two years | WSJ
We’re only days away from a possible “blue wave” and unpredictable Trump backlash | CBB
Carney Says Canada Prepared to Wait on Trade Deal Until U.S. Gets a New President | CTH
Doug Casey: The Collapse of Western Civilization Is Accelerating
Casey identifies 12 core characteristics of Western civilization now under attack, including free thought, free speech, free markets, limited government, individualism, rationality, liberty, progress, privacy, property rights, rule of law, and entrepreneurship.
Does Social Status Run in Families?
November 2026 Monthly | Marc
Even as the Chinese yuan gradually appreciates, the price competitiveness of many Chinese goods appears to be increasing.
The Russian ruble's 3.4% appreciation in October made it the strongest performer
A December rate hike still seems like the most likely scenario, barring a new shock
We have a constructive near-term outlook for the dollar and suspect there is potential for new highs in the Dollar Index.
Cleveland Fed CPI Forecasts for October
Headline: 0.24 m/m and 3.74% y/y
Core: 0.21 m/m and 2.48% y/y
AAA gasoline on 10/31: $4.184 and is down $0.25 from $4.434 a month ago
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