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May 13

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US stock futures moved lower on Wednesday as investors awaited the latest producer inflation data for additional clues on the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

During Tuesday’s regular session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined 0.16% and 0.71%, respectively, while the Dow Jones added 0.11%. Sentiment was pressured by weakness in technology shares and rising oil prices as President Donald Trump cast doubt on the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire after rejecting Tehran’s counterproposal to end the war.

Economic data released Tuesday also showed US consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, above expectations of 3.7% and the highest level since May 2023.

Negative “real” rates: CPI Inflation Blows Past Fed Rates | Wolf
The year-over-year CPI, rising by 3.8%, has now blown by the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates of 3.5% to 3.75%, thereby turning the Fed’s policy rates negative in “real” terms (adjusted for CPI). This situation of short-term borrowing costs below the rate of inflation is stimulative of inflation and of the economy. The bond market should freak out if the Fed sits on its hands and watches it play out.

Trump is coming to Beijing with his cap in his hand. | Moon
He, as usual, will try to bluff a way to ‘victory’. He will proceed as if the U.S. were in a great position. The Chinese will be polite, but won’t have any of it. There have been little preparations for the trip. The sherpas did not convene beforehand to straighten out serious issues between the countries. There are no big contracts or treaties to sign.

Peak Digest

Debt Rattle



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