August 13
AlJz
US says military can maintain blockade on Iranian ports ‘indefinitely
Iran
New US carrier headed to Middle East as Hegseth vows sustained Iran blockade
US could not verify Israeli warnings of Iran plots against Trump - Reuters
Mkts 2Y 10Y 30Y
US stock indices closed higher on Thursday after soft price data consolidated bets on a Federal Reserve rate hold next month. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to a new record, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.1%, also nearing it's all-time closing high, and the Dow added 70 points. Headline and core producer prices were lower than expected in July, in line with yesterday’s tame CPI report and easing recent concerns over hawkish signals from FOMC members.
Traders are now pricing in just ~35% odds of a rate hike
Fed's annual J-Hole event takes place on 27 to 29 August
Wauck
Trump’s military advisers have finally convinced him that more bombing is hopeless and detrimental to US long term interests, so the only hope is to out-wait Iran using economic pressure. \\ Iran has shifted from defense to offense, aggressively restructuring its military for an offensive posture abroad and warning to prolong the war until Trump leaves office on January 20, 2029, per Bloomberg.
Politico
Russia’s Starlink copycat is heading to orbit ahead of schedule, and that’s a problem for Ukraine.
Peak
Historic drought has lowered the Danube, Rhine, and Main rivers, disrupting cruise traffic, agriculture, and energy infrastructure. Romania’s nuclear plant shut down one reactor in late July and declared a state of emergency.
Sput
Russia Aims to Choke Ukraine’s Last Major Danube Water Artery for NATO Logistics
News
Initial claims for the current week 209K
US Producer Prices Flat in July, following a revised 0.1% fall in June
Core PPI rose 0.2% from the upwardly revised 0.4%. Core up 4.2% y/y
AAA
Gasoline is $4.071 vs $4.099 3 days ago
Cleveland Fed sees August CPI at .35 m/m and 3.36 y/y. Core .20 and 2.38
Ed Dowd
US Disabilities Hit An All-Time High Of 37 Million. UP 23% Since Feb 2021.
The conclusion from the data is straightforward. The timing, the magnitude, the concentration among the previously healthy working age population, and the failure of alternative explanations all point to the COVID vaccine campaign as one of the primary driver of the excess disability.
Tribe
The West treats Islam as a religion, a set of private beliefs, rituals, and moral teachings. This framework is fundamentally false. Islam functions as a state.
John
The US Navy is in Crisis. Military families and Congress members are sounding the alarm about an intensifying mental health crisis onboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, as its 5,000 sailors and marines endure a record-breaking deployment at sea tied to the war with Iran.
Dems quiz Pentagon about conditions aboard USS Abraham Lincoln | NYP
Debt Rattle
You can vote yourself into socialism but you’ve got to shoot your way out.
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