June 10
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y CLZ6
S&P is down 0.56% | 9:13
Dollar index fell slightly to 99.89
Oil is up $1.20
Gold is down $110
10Y is higher by 0.7bp to 4.529%
The headline inflation rate rose to 4.2% in May, its highest since April 2023
The core rate climbed to 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since September 2025.
Month-over-month, CPI increased 0.5% as expected
Core inflation eased more than anticipated to 0.2%.
The index for energy rose 3.9% and accounted for over 60% of the increase | MTick
Inside the numbers is not just a 7% increase in gas prices in May -- there is also a 5.9% increase in electrical power on an annualized basis, and 0.6% on the month. What's worse is that in services less energy-related services is still well above the alleged 2% "target"; 3.4% over the last 12 months. The market is ignoring all of this but for how long? Again I remind everyone that in 1974 we had a five month dislocation in oil out of the Middle East with the embargo and the flow-through damage didn't dissipate for eight years.
The CPI Math Driving Inflation Works Two Ways
May CPI will capture gasoline prices from roughly May 1–21, when national averages were still running at recent peaks. The recent easing of gasoline prices will not show up until the June report at the earliest.
Debt Rattle
Email: wkidder42@gmail.com
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at 1:00 AM