May 4
Oil Prices Rise as US and Iran Exchange Fire
WTI crude oil futures surged about 3% to $105 per barrel on Monday as tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply, with the US and Iran exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The US military said Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps launched cruise missiles at American warships and commercial vessels, while US forces “defended all commercial ships” against drones and small boats deployed by Tehran.
The United Arab Emirates reported intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and confirmed a fire at its Fujairah oil hub, one of the first major infrastructure hits in weeks. The Fujairah oil terminal is a key export facility for the UAE. It allowed them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and continue to export large volumes of oil.
SitRep: Shots Fired
While it does look bad, both sides appear to have pulled their punches. Iran did not attempt to sink the ships and only hit a small section of the UAE’s oil export infrastructure. The U.S. claims to have sunk some small fast-attack boats, and avoided striking Iranian infrastructure.
Tick Tock, Time Is Running Out: The Path to $200 Oil Laid Out | Peak
We’re almost out of time. The US has to get the Strait of Hormuz open, one way or the other, before its own inventories of oil and refined petroleum products are depleted. By the end of May is the word on the street.
S&P Oil FX Gold BTC 10Y
10Y rose to 4.456% on Monday, the highest since July 2025
Gasoline futures surged to over $3.75, the highest in nearly four years
Anthropic Enters $1.5 Billion Joint Venture That Includes Goldman, Blackstone | Zero
FedEx, UPS Slide After Amazon Opens Freight Network To All Businesses | Zero
"Strongly Disapprove" of Trump is at 48%, its record worst | Ras
Factory orders surge +1.5%, versus +0.5% consensus as core capex revised higher | Forex
Trump appears to be trying to force kinetic action in the Iran war, with his own officials now openly resisting his announcement that he will send a convoy into the Strat of Hormuz . We had said one way out of this war might be a soft coup, in the form of military officials refusing to implement Trump’s orders and that could be what is happening now. | Naked
Be advised: the autopen pardons of “Joe Biden” will be tested in court. | Kunst
So, if you happen to believe that the concluding scenes of Operation Epic Fury in Iran will somehow work to advantage the Democratic party to sweep the midterm elections, better rethink your strategery
Peak Prosperity Daily Digest
Today’s Digest covers Trump’s Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, energy shocks, automaker costs, Jane Street and GameStop deals, ICE site breach, AI brain tech, and a fake study that fooled both AI and people.
Debt Rattle
* Tesla Will Sell 1,000,000+ Optimus Robots PER YEAR by 2030
* Optimus is going to change everything. Home care usually means a lot of sacrifice
Does the Kentucky Derby Prove Eugenics? 19 of 20 entrants were descendants of Secretariat | Sail
Only Emerging Market not sharing his bloodline.
Settlers uproot 1,000 olive trees in Turmus Ayya near Ramallah | MEM
Photo -Israeli soldiers stand by as Israeli construction vehicles destroy agricultural lands and uproot centuries-old olive trees
The economy is projected to have added around 60K jobs, marking a sharp slowdown from 178K in March
Markets currently expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the remainder of the year
China Invokes Blocking Statute for First Time | Wauck
The move puts multinational companies operating in both markets in direct legal conflict: compliance with U.S. sanctions now risks violating Chinese law, and vice versa.
The Scientific Method at Machine Speed
AI systems are running the scientific method autonomously, at machine speed, around the clock, and across every domain of science simultaneously.
Hey Chat, Make Me a Fake ID
OpenAI’s tool particularly excels at creating fake screenshots. Need to fabricate confirmation of wire transfer from Chase? A Wells Fargo alert for unusual account activity? A receipt for an Uber ride? Done, done, and done.
The U.S. Strategy Has Little to Do with Trump | John
It seems that Noam Chomsky is right: no president since World War II has been able to truly influence US foreign policy. The rich and powerful puppet masters—who are not elected but who staff key governmental and non-governmental institutions with their “envoys” and are referred to as the “deep state”—are the ones calling the shots. JFK was an exception among presidents;
Why Jerome Powell Decided to Stay at the Fed | WSJ
Bessent called it “a violation of all Federal Reserve norms” and said Powell was acting as if “he alone can maintain the integrity of the Fed,” adding that it was insulting to Warsh.
Doug Noland Weekly: Gradually Transitioning to Suddenly
A high-risk inflationary environment.
Out of control deficit spending.
A deeply divided Fed in a most-uncertain transition.
Fed independence in jeopardy.
Historic AI arms race-related borrowing and spending.
An incredibly fraught geopolitical environment.
A global leveraged speculating community fully loaded in Treasuries and global bonds.
Throw in a global crisis of confidence in U.S. leadership
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at 1:00 AM