June 9
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y CLZ6
May Home Sales Notched Their Biggest Rise This Year. Sales up 3.2% for the month
ADP private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week
10Y lower by 2.5bp | 10:37
S&P is up 0.27%. fading as chip names reverse lower
Oil is down $3.61
The market is optimistic about a wrap-up in the Hormuz mess after Trump said a deal could come in the next couple days. That was underscored by a report in the past hour that Saudi Arabia was passing around a deal text that the US will review.
The CPI Math Driving Inflation Works Two Ways
To compute CPI, the BLS measures gasoline prices during the first three weeks of the reference month. Thus, May CPI will capture gasoline prices from roughly May 1–21, when national averages were still running at recent peaks. The recent easing of gasoline prices will not show up until the June report at the earliest.
Debt Rattle
* The reason ID is banned in California (and New York) elections is to enable large-scale fraud
* US officials have prepared proposals to bypass Britain and negotiate directly for control of Diego Garcia
* The rush by AI companies to go public before the window closes
Today’s Peak Digest
An expected BOJ rate hike to 1%, rising airline fuel costs, El Niño droughts with food shocks, US Walz fraud scandal, rising bankruptcies, AI stock selloff and OpenAI IPO plans, UK police failures, and privacy surveillance disputes.
Last Friday, the S&P 500 fell 2.6 percent. However, the same index excluding AI stocks was effectively flat, suggesting the entire selloff was limited to AI. Since February 27, the S&P 500 is up 7.34 percent, while the index without AI stocks is essentially unchanged.
Iran’s New Policy Could Be a Middle East Game Changer | John
Iran has committed itself to taking military action on behalf of Hezbollah and the Lebanese people, and the Palestinians
Iran Will Respond To Ceasefire Breaches Wherever Those Are | Moon
Iran Establishes Escalation Dominance with First-Ever Non-Retaliatory Strike on Israel | Simpl
Iran is telling the United States: “For every single bullet, we will respond with many.“
The Most Dangerous Demographic in History Is About to Get a Lot Bigger
The ingredient is young men, usually between 18 and 28, who are educated enough to know what they’re missing and blocked from any path to get it. When a society produces a large cohort of young men and fails to provide them with economic purpose, marriage prospects, and social status, instability follows. Not sometimes. Almost always. The critical detail is that revolutions are not led by the poorest and least educated.
How Many Times Has Trump Claimed an Iran Deal? | PWire
Aaron Blake: “Including the period before the ceasefire, he’s done it at least 37 times. That’s the number of times he’s said directly — in social media posts, public appearances and phone calls with the media — that a deal was nigh or claimed Iran was desperate to cut one.”
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at 1:00 AM