November 4
News
Iran Says Four Oil Tankers Destroyed By Mines Near Strait Of Hormuz | Zero
VP Vance blames war on Iran for Republicans’ heavy election defeat | AlJaz
Tehran hails Democratic sweep as defeat for Trump's Iran war | Iran
ISM services falls to 54.5 from 54.9 prior
ADP employment +86K. Signals Strong Labor Market
European Stocks Rise the Most in 6 Months
Mkts Brent 10Y 30Y
S&P is up 1.81% | 11:54
10Y yield is 4.902%, lower by 7.2bp
Dollar index down 0.25%
Gold is up $130 to $4,061
Brent is $95.66, down $7.85 on hopes of Iran war ending;
Gasoline Drops to Four-Month Low
Trump said Washington had no immediate plans for further strikes, although he stressed that the US remained prepared to act if necessary. The Democratic sweep of Congress could limit further fiscal expansion and ease pressure on Treasury yields and the US dollar.
Insta
Susan Rice and others have been telegraphing that the Democrats have an agenda not just to “hold accountable” Trump and his “minions,” but to punish any business that cooperated with Trump on anything, even making a donation to the ballroom.
The atmosphere during the run-up to Tuesday’s elections felt…ominous. Maybe that’s the reason that gun sales in October spiked the way they did.”
Well, the voters have spoken. Screamed, actually. | QTR
But when the smoke clears over the next couple of days, I continue to expect equities to resume their downward trend. Nothing that happened last night changed the fundamental reasons I’ve been bearish. In fact, I think the election strengthened several of them
The Fed Just Got Permission To Do Its Job. There’s bi-partisan blame, now, if Fed action crashes stocks.
News
Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House in the midterm elections. While the outcome raises the prospect of tighter regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the AI sector, it is also expected to limit the scope for further tax cuts and government spending. Healthcare and renewable energy stocks were among the biggest gainers. Major tech stocks also recovered from early losses
Democrats economic agenda is set to target healthcare, tariffs, and Trump's allies | Clima
Election-Inspired Dollar Setback may be Buying Opportunity Ahead of Friday's Employment Report | Marc
The US election results initially spurred a sell-off in tech shares as Democrats may be more interested in regulating AI than the current administration, and local initiatives on ballots seemed overwhelmingly to support limits on the data center build out.
Trump says his Iran decision remains right for US and world | Iran
Texas Turns Blue, Futures Turn Green: | Zero
Why Wall Street Bought The Biggest Democrat Wave Since 1993
Reprisals Are Coming | CityJ
“They want to turn Trump into another Richard Nixon,” Rufo writes. “If the president ends his political career in disgrace—or in prison—it will serve as a warning to any future right-wing populist that that is the inevitable fate of his movement and, if he attempts to win the presidency, his life.”
Debt Rattle
Friday's jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls – Forecast: +63,000 – Previous: +29,000
Unemployment rate – Forecast: 4.2% – Previous: 4.2%
Average hourly earnings, monthly – Forecast: 0.3% – Previous: 0.1%
Cleveland Fed CPI Forecasts for October and November
Oct Headline: 0.24 m/m and 3.74% y/y
Oct Core: 0.21 m/m and 2.48% y/y
AAA gasoline on 11/4: $4.124 and down $0.25 from $4.370 a month ago
Nov Headline: 0.22 m/m and 3.92% y/y
Nov Core: 0.20 m/m and 2.77% y/y
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