June 15
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y CLZ6
Industrial production increased by 0.1%, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% rise
Capacity utilization rose to 76.2% in May 2026, up from 76.1%
Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 5.7 in June 2026, down from 19.6
SpaceX was 6% higher following its 20% surge on its IPO day
S&P 500 gained 1.55% | 10:49
Gold is up over 3%
10Y is lower in yield by 3.7bp
Dollar index is down 0.23%
WTI crude down $4.85 to $80.02
If oil levels hold, we will start to see negative CPI m/m readings
CLZ is down to $74, up 31% ytd
AAA gasoline is $4.065 vs $4.528 a month ago
Iran, US announce deal to end war; Israel says not party to agreement | Iran
Iran says end of Israeli war on Lebanon ‘inseparable’ part of understanding with US | Press
Iran insists no US deal will last without guarantees for Lebanon’s security | AlJz
Israel signaled it would maintain forces in territory seized in Lebanon
Israel intends to keep military presence in areas it controls in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza
Ministers say Israel won’t be bound by Iran deal | Israel
Opposition castigates Netanyahu’s ‘absolute failure’
The memorandum, as published by Iranian media, outlines three phases. | Peak
Hostilities would end, and the blockade would lift immediately. Within 30 days of signing, the US would commit to non-interference, freeze new sanctions and troop deployments, release $12 billion in frozen funds, issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and consult Israel on withdrawal from Lebanon. Iran would reaffirm NPT commitments and reopen the Strait. A further 60-day period would cover nuclear negotiations, additional sanctions relief, release of the remaining $12 billion, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund. Iran’s missile program and support for certain groups are excluded.
So who won this war? | Burn
I know Trump will declare victory, because he is bloviating egomaniac, but he clearly lost this gamble, based on the facts and not the false narratives spun by Trump and his toadies. Of course, the entire agreement will likely be obliterated when the murderous psychopath Netanyahu decides to continue his Greater Israel master plan by attacking Lebanon/Gaza/Syria once again.
Who Won The Third Gulf War? | Kory
Iran is poised to gradually return to the US-led Western order within certain limits exactly as Iran’s moderate faction has long wanted, its hardline faction has successfully preserved the armed forces and their missile stockpile, while Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever.
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