February 18
S&P Oil FX Gold Silver 10Y USH
S&P is up 0.25% | 8:54
Dollar index is up 0.18% to 97.33
Gold is up 1.45% to $4,950
10Y is 4.061%, higher by 1.7bp
Oil Surges 2.58% On Warning US-Iran War Is Far Closer Than Americans Realize
FOMC Minutes: Almost all Fed officials favored holding rates steady, 'A couple' officials favored a cut
Industrial production rose 0.7% m/m and lifting growth to 2.3% YoY
Capacity Utilization rose to 76.2%, its 6-Month High
December durable goods orders -1.4%, restrained by a decline in orders for aircraft
Orders up 12.5% YoY in 2025 - one of the biggest annual increases ever | Zero
Core Durable Goods Orders (ex Transports) rose 0.9% MoM, ninth straight monthly increase
Housing starts for December 1.404M vs 1.309M estimate
Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. Also this week, Fed minutes, Q4 GDP
Friday: Potential Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs
UK Unemployment Reaches Five-Year High at 5.2% | Arm
Federal employment is at its lowest since the mid-1960s | I&I
We can use metrics to evaluate education. | Tribe
Trump Moves Closer to Major War with Iran | PW citing Axios
Trump will not be able to say no to his “masters” because Israel wants the fight | Mear
Musk finally neutered Russia’s access to Starlink | Simpl
New York Times and Washington Post launched very similar propaganda stories on the same day | Moon
Efforts to convince public that majority of Iranians despise Islamic Republic. want it overthrown | John
A Force Built for Show, Not Sustained War
The U.S. military retains the terrifying capability to deliver a devastating initial strike. Its carriers, bombers, and cruise missiles can unleash a torrent of firepower. However, this is a force built for a short, decisive war that no longer exists. It lacks the critical ‘depth’—the industrial capacity, munitions stockpiles, and resilient supply chains—required for a prolonged, high-intensity conflict against a peer or near-peer adversary.
WHAT YOU WERE PROMISED vs. WHAT YOU GOT
Promised: DOGE refund checks.
Got: Memes. Engagement bait. Zero deposits.
Promised: Full transparency — Epstein files, JFK files, the “truth.”
Got: Redactions. Delays. “Ongoing review.” Same sealed vault.
What We’re Reading | I&I
* We just made a $200,000,000 AI movie in just one day — The Dor Brothers, X, via Ace Of Spades HQ
* AI – Taking Your Job or Your Pension Money? — Francis Turner, OmbreOlivier Substack
* Question: Why Hasn’t the Left Declared War on AI? — Christopher Chantrill, American Thinker
* The Journal for AI Generated Papers: “In Curiosity We Trust”, via Marginal Revolution
Debt Rattle
* Hyperinflation is coming and it’s coming faster than anyone is prepared for/ - Ray Dalio
* What Secretary Rubio’s speech meant in Munich: “You’re either with us — or you’re not.”
* The Munich Security Conference just ended and the verdict is in. The post-1945 era is gone.
* The most important sky events of this decade is occurring on February 28th. Six planets will align
* The smartest age in life may be 55 to 60 – not in your 20s. (KR: It's definitely not in your 80s.)
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at 1:00 AM