July 16
S&P Oil FX Gold 10Y BTC CLZ6
2 year at 4.162%, higher by 2.1bp | 2:13
10Y yield higher by 1.4bp to 4.569%
S&P is down 0.49%
Oil is $78.66, down 1.18%
Dollar index is up 0.29% to 100.77
Gold is down $73 to $3.987, approaching lowest level since November 2025
JPMorgan shifts focus from Hormuz oil chokepoint to Russian refining crisis | Clima
Russia Struggles To Deliver Crude Oil As It Hits 135 Million Barrel Traffic Jam | Zero
Initial Claims Fall to 2-Month Low at 208,000
Retail Sales Slow as Expected, up 0.2%
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 41.4 from 10.3
AAA gasoline is $3.943 vs $3.846 a week ago
U.S. CentCom Attacks Commercial Shipping After Bombing Iran For Doing The Same | Moon
Iran Warns US Of 'Infrastructure For Infrastructure' War | Zero
Will destroy "all infrastructure throughout the region" if Trump goes after bridges, energy sites
Higher energy prices have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Traders currently see about a 51% chance of a September rate hike.
The Fed Still Doesn’t Understand Where Inflation Comes From | Arm
Wars are the most inflationary events imaginable. Williams argues that oil prices have peaked and that disruptions in the Middle East should gradually subside. That is an assumption, not a forecast supported by events. This is exactly why Keynesian economics continually fails. It treats inflation as though it exists in isolation from politics. The world economy has never functioned that way.
Today’s Peak Digest
Indian companies are adopting Chinese open-weight models from DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Moonshot AI. Per Nikkei, these models deliver roughly 95 percent of frontier U.S. capabilities at lower cost. DeepSeek runs at 19 cents to $1.74 per million input tokens on Microsoft’s Foundry, versus $5 to $12 for OpenAI’s GPT 5.5 series.
The EU Plans To Pay China To Help Ukraine Kill Russians | Kory
The Financial Times published a piece on Wednesday alleging that “Ukraine to buy Chinese drone parts with EU funds”. The immediate intensification of the US’ new “war of attrition” against Russia is therefore dependent on whether China helps Ukraine for profit and “détente” at the cost of Russian civilian lives or refuses out of solidarity with Russia in the spirit of their strategic partnership.
The Saudis Back Down | John
I thought that the Saudis would retaliate on Tuesday or Wednesday for the Houthi strike on Monday … Thankfully, I was wrong. The Saudis did not follow up by launching new attacks at Houthi positions. The Saudi attack was foolish and reckless. At present, the Saudis are able to export a bit of oil from Yanbu, a Saudi city that sits on the shores of the Red Sea. This attack on Yemen — albeit an airfield — carried the risk that the Houthis would attack the Saudi oil facility at Yanbu and close the Bab al Mandab Strait.
How Socialism Captured the West Coast
this is not a working-class movement or driven by “people of color.” Portland and Seattle are among the whitest big cities in America, and most unions, particularly outside the government sector, remain tied to the more centrist Democratic establishment. The universities act as a gateway drug for many who rally to the radical Left.
All Socialists Are Ignorant, But Some Are More Ignorant Than Others.
Friedrich Hayek warned that socialists, whatever their intentions, lacked the knowledge to command the economy. Hayek also explained how the worst always get on top in socialist regimes,
California is poised to become the next South Africa.
The state’s leaders have increasingly embraced a radical, race-based vision of politics that echoes South Africa’s post-apartheid experiment in racialized government. Race is becoming an organizing principle of public policy, shaping everything from education and data collection to bureaucratic decision-making and wealth redistribution. South Africa sorted its citizens by race to deny rights, and now California does the same to distribute benefits.
Thomas Massie Sparks a Democratic Civil War Over Israel | Reas
His amendment to cut all military aid to Israel split the Democratic Party almost evenly.
Warren Buffett stops Gates Foundation donations, will give $6 billion to family foundations | Insta
For a guy who spent a lifetime picking winners and dumping losers, he sure held on to Gates for a long time.
Trump Raises Over $780 Million for Second Term | PWire
Trump's Address To Focus on 'Free and Fair Elections' | Real
Integrative intelligence is the ability to combine insights from unrelated fields to create new ideas.
it’s the rare capacity to think fluently across unrelated domains and build something new at the intersections.
Maine and Michigan, for example, are both in the Eastern Time Zone.
As a result, the sun will rise in Bangor, Maine, at 6:40 a.m. on Dec. 21, but not until 8:40 a.m. in White Pine, Michigan. See Map.
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